Last week’s economic reports included readings new and pending home sales, Case-Shiller housing market indices and consumer sentiment. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.

New Home Sales Rise as Pending Home Sales Fall

Sales of new homes rose 17 percent in November for an eight-month high. Year-to-date sales of new homes were only 2.70 percent higher than for the same period in 2018.New home sales rose to 657,000 sales as compared to expectations of 563,000 sales and November’s reading of 562,000 sales. Analysts cautioned that Commerce Department readings for new home sales are prepared from a slim sampling of sales and are subject to volatility.

Pending home sales slumped in December to a negative reading of -2.20 percent as compared to November’s seasonally-adjusted annual reading of -0.90 percent. Analysts said the dip was likely caused by consumer concerns over the government shutdown and potential future shutdowns.

December’s reading was the twelfth consecutive negative month-to-month reading. Real estate pros and analysts cited ongoing challenges including high home prices and mortgage rates as contributing to fewer contract signings.

In related news, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee elected not to raise the Fed’s target federal funds interest rate range, which is currently 2.25 to 2.50 percent. Domestic and global economic concerns led committee members to pause interest rate hikes.

Case-Shiller reported lower home price growth in November with a year-over-year annual reading of 5.20 percent growth. Las Vegas, Nevada, Seattle Washington and Denver Colorado held the top three spots on the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported slightly higher average mortgage rates last week; 30-year fixed mortgage rates averaged 4.46 percent and were one basis point higher than for the prior week. 15-year fixed mortgage rates averaged 3.89 percent and were also one basis point higher.

The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was six basis points higher at 3.96 percent. Discount points averaged 0;50 percent for 30-year fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 15-year fixed rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent.

First-time jobless claims surged last week to 253,000 new claims filed. Analysts attributed the spike in new jobless claims to seasonal quirks that were not expected to last. The four-week rolling average of new jobless claims is considered less volatile and rose by 5,000 new claims to 222,250 initial claims filed.

The University of Michigan released its Consumer Sentiment Index last week; the January index reading of 91.20 was higher than the expected reading of 90.70 but was the lowest since President Trump’s election. December’s index reading was 98.30; analysts blamed the government shutdown on the sudden dip in consumer confidence.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s economic news includes the President’s State of the Union speech and speeches by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic news included readings on sales of previously owned homes and weekly readings on average mortgage rates and new jobless claims. A scheduled report on sales of new homes was not available due to the government shutdown.

National Association of Realtors®: Sales of Pre-Owned Homes Lowest in 3 Years

Sales of previously owned homes fell in December and failed to meet expectations. 4.99 million pre-owned homes were sold on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis; analysts predicted 5.10 million sales based on 5.33 million sales in November 2018. December’s reading showed the lowest number of sales since November of 2015.

Sales of previously-owned homes fell 6.40 percent month-to-month and were 10.30 percent lower year-over-year. Inventories of previously-owned homes also slipped in December with a 3.70 months supply of homes as compared to 3.90 months supply of available homes in November. Real estate pros consider six months supply of homes for sale as an average inventor.

Real estate pros said that lower buyer traffic in all regions of the U.S. could indicate less interest from buyers, but on a positive note, fewer buyers also remove the high rates of competition seen in the recent past.

Lower mortgage rates are well-timed for the upcoming spring sales season. Real estate pros were hopeful that lower mortgage rates will hold and entice more buyers into the market.

Mortgage Rates Mixed, New Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported no change in average interest rates for fixed rate mortgages. The average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages held at 4.45 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was also unchanged at 3.88 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged three basis points higher at 3.90 percent. Discount points averaged 0.40 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims fell to 199,000 new claims filed. Analysts expected 218,000 new claims to be filed based on the prior week’s reading of 212,000 new claims filed. Last week’s reading represented the first time since 1969 that new jobless claims fell below 200,000, but analysts were wary of potential impact of the government shutdown on new jobless claims. The shutdown ended on Friday until February 15, but politicians seemed unenthusiastic about future shutdowns.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and readings on pending home sales, construction spending and the post-meeting statement from the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee.

Labor sector readings on private and public employment and the national unemployment rate will also be released. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will be released on schedule.

Last week’s economic reports included remarks by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, readings on inflation and core inflation. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and first-tome jobless claims were also released. If the government shutdown continues, it is expected to impact release dates for readings from federal government agencies.

Federal Reserve Watches and Waits on Interest Rates as Inflation Slows

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve will “wait and see” about raising the target federal funds rate this year. Chairman Powell spoke at a discussion hosed by the Economic Club of Washington, D.C. Mr. Powell clarified the Fed’s estimate of two rate hikes during 2019 and said that the predicted two rate hikes would occur based on “a very strong economic outlook for 2019.”

Faltering financial markets and slower rates of home price growth caused the Fed to dial back it’s bullish outlook and instead emphasize that Fed monetary policy is flexible and could be adjusted quickly adjusted as changing economic conditions merit.

Mortgage Rates and New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages fell six basis points to 4.45 percent; rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages fell 10 basis points to 3.89 percent.

The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate e mortgages was 15 basis points lower at 3.85 percent Discount rates averaged 0.50 percent for 30-year fixed rate mortgages, points for 15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 0.40 percent and discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent.

First-time jobless claims fell by 15,000 claims to 216,000 new claims filed. Analysts expected 227,000 new claims based on the prior week’s reading of 231,000 new claims filed.

December’s Consumer Price Index was – 0.10 percent lower than for November, which matched expectations based on November’s positive inflation rate reading of + 0.10 percent. Slowing inflation could indicate slower economic growth; a consistent pattern of sluggish inflation may cause the Fed to hold steady on raising its key interest rate.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on the National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index, Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. The Consumer Sentiment Index is also scheduled for release. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and initial jobless claims will be released on schedule.

Last week’s economic readings included readings from the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, National Association of Realtors® report on sales of pre-owned homes and Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.

Housing Market Challenges Catch Up to Builder Sentiment

According to the National Association of Home Builders, overall builder sentiment fell six points to November’s reading of 60. This was the largest decline in builder sentiment since 2016. Ongoing concerns over lot and labor shortages and rising costs of building materials were cited along with recently rising mortgage rates.

Demand for homes eased as potential buyers were sidelined by rising rates, shortages of homes for sale and approaching winter weather and holidays. Any Housing Market Index reading over 50 is considered positive, but steep drops in builder sentiment is considered a predictor of stabilizing market conditions.

National Association of Realtors®: Sales of Pre-Owned Home Sales Rise in October

Sales of previously-owned homes rose in October to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.22 million sales as compared to September’s reading of 5.15 million sales. Analysts estimated a reading of 5.18 million sales. While this reading suggests that buyers are active, an increase in home sales signals easing demand as compared to recent months when many buyers were sidelined due to extreme buyer competition for short inventories of homes for sale.

Mortgage Rates First-Time Jobless Claims Fall as New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week; rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 4.81 percent, which was 13 basis points lower than the previous week. Rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 4.24 percent and were 12 basis points lower.

Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 4.09 percent and were five basis points lower. Discount points averaged 0.40 percent for 30-year fixed rate mortgages, 0.50 percent for 15-year fixed rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims rose last week to 224,000 new claims filed as compared to expectations of 215,000 claims. The prior week’s reading was 221,000 new claims filed.

What‘s Ahead

Economic readings set for release this week include Case-Shiller home price indices, new home sales and pending home sales. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic news included readings on inflation, core inflation and retail sales. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.

Inflation, Retail Sales Rise in October

Commerce Department readings for October showed higher inflation and retail sales. Consumer Price Index rose by 0.30 percent and met expectations. September’s CPI reading was 0.10 percent. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors, also met expectations with a reading of 0.20 percent growth. September’s reading was 0.10 percent. Analysts attributed the highest reading in nine months to higher costs of fuel, rent and used cars.

Retail sales recovered from September’s negative reading of -0.10 percent and surpassed expectations of 0.60 percent growth with October’s reading of 0.80 percent. Higher fuel prices prompted the jump in retail sales after August and September readings were revised to negative readings. Recent declines in oil prices were expected to stabilize gas prices for consumers.

The reading for retail sales excluding autos also exceeded expectations with a reading of 0.70 percent. Analysts expected growth of 0.50 percent based September’s revised reading of -0.10 percent. Looking forward to the holiday shopping season, analysts expected robust readings for retail sales. Increased wages and a strong labor market were expected to help consumers during the holiday shopping season.

Mortgage Rates Stabilize

Mortgage rates were mostly unchanged last week, which provided a reprieve for home buyers. Freddie Mac reported that rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 4.33 percent and was unchanged from the prior week. Mortgage rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages rose three basis points and averaged 4.36 percent.

Rates for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage averaged 4.14 percent and were unchanged from the prior week. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for 30-year mortgages and 0.40 percent for 15-year fixed rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages were 0.30 percent on average.

First-time jobless claims were higher last week with a reading of 216,000 new claims filed as compared to expectations of 210,000 new claims filed and the prior week’s reading of 214,000 new claims filed New jobless claims remained near historic lows despite last week’s increase in claims.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic releases include readings from the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index and Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. The National Association of Realtors® will release its report on sales of pre-owned homes. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s scheduled economic news was slim last week. The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve issued its post-meeting statement, weekly readings on average mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also issued.

FOMC: Fed Target Rate Unchanged, but Expected to Rise in December

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve announced that it did not raise the target federal funds rate but set the stage for raising the benchmark rate n coming months. The current range for the Fed rate us 2.00 percent to 2.00 to 2.25 percent. The Fed expects to increase rates three times in 2019 provided that strong economic conditions prevail.

FOMC members watch inflation, financial markets and domestic and global news to determine how or if to adjust the Federal Reserve’s target interest rates range.

Although FOMC releases projections based on current events and financial developments, changes to financial markets or global events could cause the Fed to hold off on raising interest rates.

Mortgage Rates, Hit Seven-Year High, New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates that pushed current mortgage rates to their highest levels in seven years. Rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgages rose 11 basis points to an average of 4.94 percent; 15-year fixed rate mortgage rates averaged 4.33 percent, which was ten basis points higher than the prior week.

Rates for a 5/1 adjustable rate rose by 10 basis points to an average of 4.14 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims fell by 1000 new claims to 214,000 new claims filed. Analysts expected 210,000 new claims filed based on the prior week’s reading of 215,000 first-time jobless claims filed.

What‘s Ahead

Next week’s economic reports include readings on inflation, retail sales and weekly reports on mortgage rates and mortgage rates.

Last week’s economic news included readings for Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, Commerce Department readings on construction spending and the University of Michigan’s reading on consumer confidence. Labor sector reports on jobs growth and the national unemployment rate were posted along with weekly readings on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims.

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Lowest in 20 Months; Construction Spending Falls

Home price growth hit its lowest pace in 20 months according to Case=Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index for August. Home prices grew by 5.80 percent year-over-year as compared to July’s growth rate of 6.00 percent.

Analysts said that slowing growth of home prices could signal that home prices have reached their peak; Inventories of homes for sale are near the six-month inventory reading considered a normal inventory of homes for sale.

Sales have slowed in recent months due to rapidly rising home prices, high demand for homes and slim inventories of available homes. Increasing supplies of homes for sale are a sign that housing markets are balancing to accommodate prospective buyers.

Construction spending was flat in September at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of $133 trillion. Analysts expected 0.20 percent growth in construction spending based on August’s growth rate of 0.80 percent. The slowdown in spending was likely due to seasonal dips in construction activity as winter approaches.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week; rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged three basis points lower at 4.83 percent. Rates for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 4.23 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages were 10 basis points lower at 4.04 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims were lower last week with 214,000 new claims filed; analysts expected 212,000 new claims to be filed based on the prior week’s first-time claims 216,000 new claims filed. Reported. The Commerce Department reported 250,000 public and private sector jobs added in October. ADP added 227,000 private sector jobs in October. The national unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.70 percent.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index reported an index reading of 137.90 in October as compared to September’s reading of 135.30 and an expected reading of 136.40.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include the post-meeting statement from the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.