What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – October 31, 2022

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - October 31, 2022

Last week’s economic news included readings on home prices from S&P Case-Shiller home price indices along with sales of new homes and federal government data on inflation. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Home Price Growth Slows in August

U.S home prices fell by 9.8 percent year-over-year in August according to S&P Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index. National home prices fell by -5.3 percent in July. The 20-City Home Price Index rose  13.1 percent year-over-year but reflected readings from markets that were stronger in 2021. Miami. Florida, Tampa, Florida, and Charlotte, North Carolina held the top three spots for home price gains.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported that home prices for homes owned or financed by the two government-sponsored mortgage organizations fell by -7.6 percent in August as compared to July’s reading of -7.3 percent.

The Commerce Department reported that new home sales fell by -10.9 percent to a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 603,000 sales from August’s revised reading of 677,000 sales. High home prices and rising mortgage rates sidelined prospective buyers concerned about affordability and mortgage qualification requirements. Homebuilders have repeatedly cited rising materials costs and rising mortgage rates as reasons for scaling back new home construction. The good news is that September’s reading surpassed analysts’ expected reading of 593,000 new home sales. Sales of previously owned homes fell to 4.71 million sales on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis as compared to the expected reading of 4.70 million sales and 4.78 million sales of previously-owned homes in August.

Mortgage Rates Top 7 Percent as New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 14 basis points to 7.08 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.36 percent and were 13 basis points higher. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 5.96 percent and rose 25 basis points. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 1.40 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent.

New jobless claims fell to 214,000 initial claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 226,000 first-time claims filed and the expected reading of 230,000 first-time claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on construction spending, sales of previously-owned homes, and a statement from the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also scheduled to give a post-meeting press conference.

The ‘Golden Girls’ Strategy? Elderly Adults Share Home Ownership

The 'Golden Girls' Strategy Elderly Adults Share Home OwnershipThe “Golden Girls” trend got its name from the popular television sitcom about four elderly women who live together to share expenses. It is becoming a popular way in real life for elderly adults to share homeownership and it has many benefits.

The cost of assisted living is quite high. The median cost in the United States for assisted living is $4,051 per month. In many parts of America, that amount makes a substantial mortgage payment. Rather than pay that high price to live in an adult assisted-living community, many able-bodied elderly are choosing to pool their resources and live together in a large home that they own together.

Buying A Home To Share

The homes that work well for this are those that have many bedrooms, each with a private bath, and are on one-level. Three- or four-bedroom homes are ideal because the cost of the home and the operating expenses can be shared among three or four elderly adults to reduce each person’s cost compared to what they would spend if they were alone.

It Is Fun To Share

The communal areas for a shared-living arrangement are the main living room, dining area, and kitchen. Many find that by sharing the cost of a home, among like-minded peers, that the quality of life is very nice. The pooling of resources usually creates enough money to pay for the expenses and to pay for in-home personal assistance as needed. Most importantly, loneliness is reduced, which sometimes leads to serious depression in the elderly who live alone.

Many baby boomers are now entering retirement. Estimates are that seven out of 10 will need some form of assisted living care. Females still live longer than men on average, so that is why this trend is more about elderly women living together than men. However, the concept works just as well for both sexes.

Multigenerational living is also becoming popular for the same reasons. It costs so much to own and maintain a home that it is not as easily accomplished by households with one or two workers who contribute to pay for the expenses. Most situations benefit from having a third or a fourth contributor, which reduces the average contribution for all.

Get Competent Legal Advice

When considering any shared ownership of a home, it is very important to use the services of a competent legal counsel to draw up the ownership agreement. Shared homeownership is a type of partnership and benefits from having a “buy-sell” provision in the agreement that allows any remaining co-owners to buy out the portion held by a co-owner who dies or otherwise becomes physically unable to continue living in the home.

Summary

Most baby boomers had roommates when they went to college to share expenses. Embracing a “Golden Girls” strategy to share home ownership is like returning to a style from the younger times. It is wise to be very careful about who is chosen to form a home-ownership partnership; however, with proper legal documentation and prudence in choosing who to live with, this can be a very satisfying way to spend your golden years.

More Than 25% Of Millennial Homebuyers May Be Financially Unprepared

More Than 25% Of Millennial Homebuyers May Be Financially UnpreparedMillennials are the first generation in America that will probably not be able to do as well as their parents. In the United States, there is not as much upward mobility as there was in the past. What is the cause of this?

CNN reports that Millennials have more college degrees than their parents. They also have an enormous amount of student loan debt. Many millennials have lower-paying jobs than their parents had at the same age when adjusted for inflation. Spending patterns changed as well, due to the high cost of living.

Finding The Money

Saving is not easy. The net worth of Americans, who are from 18 to 35 years old, decreased by 34% since 1996. Even though millennials are financially savvy, the 2008 global financial crisis made it difficult to find jobs and made saving for many nearly impossible. Those who have been able to put aside some money in the last ten years are lucky if they have $8,000 in savings, which is the average for those millennials trying to save for a home purchase.

Soaring Home Prices

By 2018, the real estate market recovered from the 2008 collapse. In most American cities, housing prices are going up significantly. The home prices surpassed pre-crash levels and now continue to rise. Soaring home prices make buying a home very challenging.

What To Do?

For most millennials, the best choice is to continue to live with their parents and use the lower cost of living as an opportunity to put away enough money for the required down payment to buy a house. Many plan to live very frugally and to save for up to five years if they want to buy a home of their own.

For others, they are developing co-ownership plans, where millennials plan to share home buying with more than one person. In these deals, they become the landlord and the tenants of a multifamily property that they buy together.

The Math

The median home price in America is $226,800. First-time buyers, who qualify, can get FHA-backed mortgage financing with as little as 3.5% down. Still, that is $7,938 just for the down payment. There is also the need to have 2% to 5% of the loan amount for closing costs, which can add up to $10,943.

Financial prudence recommends having at least three months of living expenses in savings to cover any unexpected temporary emergencies, like losing a job. Add another $12,000 for this contingency. This means to safely buy a home at the median price, with a low-down-payment loan, a millennial may need to have as much as $30,881.

For conventional financing, with 20% down, the numbers are much higher. For that type of financing, a millennial needs about $66,432!

Summary

Millennials face significant challenges in homeownership that are unique to their generation. For these reasons, many are delaying homeownership for at least five years and living with their parents longer, to save more money, to make their dream of homeownership come true in the more distant future.

If you are in the market for a new home or interested in refinancing your current property, be sure to contact your trusted home mortgage professional.

FOMC Statement: Key Fed Rate Unchanged; Policymakers Monitor Impact of Asian Flu Outbreak

FOMC Statement Key Fed Rate Unchanged; Policymakers Monitor Impact of Asian Flu OutbreakThe Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve issued its scheduled post-meeting statement Wednesday. Policymakers unanimously decided to leave the target federal funds rate range unchanged at 1.50 to 1.75 percent.

FOMC members reasserted previous views that inflation was “subdued” and the economy was growing at a moderate pace. The Fed typically bases decisions about interest rates on its dual mandate of achieving maximum employment and an annual inflation rate of 2.00 percent.

U.S. Economy Strong, Fed Chair Sees No Immediate Risk From China

FOMC cut the target interest rate range three times in 2019 to offset higher prices associated with a trade war with China, but the Committee considered recent progress in trade negotiations as an indication that there was no current need for further rate cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he was not concerned about immediate risks from China.

In its current assessment of economic conditions, the Fed cited a strong labor market and job growth but said that business investments and exports were weak. Core inflation readings, which exclude volatile food and fuel sectors, consistently ran below 2.00 percent. The FOMC changed language in its statement to indicate a goal of achieving an inflation rate of 2.00 percent; previous statements referred to an inflation goal of near 2.00 percent.

Committee members will continue to monitor current and developing economic conditions to determine when or if to change the benchmark interest rate range in future meetings.

Fed Chair: Fed Is Monitoring Potential Impact Of Coronavirus Outbreak

Concerns over trade conflicts with China were overshadowed by an outbreak of a strain of Asian influenza in China. The disease, caused by a coronavirus, is extremely contagious and spreads quickly. This could impact global economic conditions as international air travel and shipping may be limited or stopped to prevent further spread of the virus.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that although the Fed is not worried about an immediate threat, the FOMC members would continue to monitor how and where the current outbreak of Asian influenza spreads to determine if changes to the Fed’s monetary policy positions are necessary. Tensions in the Middle East were not mentioned in the FOMC statement or Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting statement.

 

5 Excellent Pathways To Home Ownership For Millennials

5 Excellent Pathways To Home Ownership For MillennialsMillennials are a huge socio-demographic group of over 83 million people. Many of them want to buy a home but face challenges that their parents did not necessarily have. Homes are more expensive. In most places, home prices rebounded to exceed the pre-2008 economic collapse values. Moreover, home prices continue to go up.

The encouraging news is that there is home financing readily available and mortgage interest rates are still reasonable. Even if it is more challenging, the greatest investment that most Americans can make is buying a home. Paying rent is only helping the landlord get rich. Homeownership is still highly desirable and a part of a wise long-term investment strategy.

Here are some tips that millennials can use to become homeowners.

Save For The Down Payment And Build An Excellent Credit History

The best rates for home loans are for those with an excellent credit history who can put down 20%. It is possible to borrow the down payment. The problem with this strategy is that the cost of the loan is higher. The mortgage rate may be higher and the lender may require private mortgage insurance (PMI). PMI pays off the loan balance to the lender if the homeowner defaults on the loan; however, it does not protect the homeowner’s equity in the home or any down payment. PMI just adds another monthly expense.

Create Non-Location Dependent Income

Home prices are somewhat dependent on the local economy and the employment available in the local area. By creating non-location dependent income through the “gig” economy. Work as a freelancer or a person who telecommutes by working from home. With this income, you will be freer to look for a home in a rural area or an area where the home prices are lower.

Take Advantage Of First-Time Homebuyer Programs

Many first-time homebuyer programs are offered by programs of the federal government through the Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and other agencies. Be sure to investigate those possibilities when considering buying a home.

Hunt For A Home In Low-Cost Areas

Use the online systems when searching for a home to compare two things, 1) the median price of homes for each area and 2) the cost of living for each area. The areas with low median prices and that have a lower cost of living are usually easier places to buy a home.

Partner With Others

A home-buying partnership is something many are using to make owning a home more affordable. Multigenerational ownership is used by many families to buy a large home together and share it. Other partnerships can be made among individuals, who are not relatives, to share ownership. Choose ownership partners very carefully and be sure to have competent legal counsel when creating a written ownership agreement.

Summary

Millennials are challenged with new obstacles when seeking to buy a home. The strongest challenge is the cost of homeownership. However, there are many clever ways to improve the chances of enjoying an affordable ownership situation. Be patient and do not give up. Work with a REALTOR® who understands the challenges and is an expert in the area where you are thinking about buying and with a trusted home mortgage professional to find the best financing options for your situation.

FOMC Statement: Fed Holds Steady On Its Interest Rate Range

FOMC Statement: Fed Holds Steady On Its Interest Rate RangeThe Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve announced its unanimous decision not to change to the current target federal funds range of 1.50 to 1.75 percent. The committee’s customary post-meeting statement said the decision not to change the Fed’s target range for federal funds was based on factors including a strong labor market, moderate economic growth, continued job growth, and low unemployment.

Economic readings reviewed prior to the FOMC meeting held Tuesday and Wednesday supported the achievement of the committee’s dual mandate to achieve maximum employment and maintain price stability.

According to the post-meeting statement issued on December 11, FOMC members consistently review incoming global and domestic economic news to determine if the Fed’s monetary policy should be adjusted. Chair Powell signaled that the federal funds rate may not change in 2020, but repeated the FOMC’s frequently-repeated caveat that monetary policy is subject to change as world news and economic conditions may warrant.

Expected And Realized Economic Conditions Contribute To Fed’s Monetary Policy

FOMC members reviewed their expectations of economic performance and compared them with actual readings in evaluating economic performance as connected to the Federal Reserve’s dual mandates of maximum employment and price stability. Low unemployment and overall inflation readings near two percent supported the Committee’s decision not to change the target range for the federal funds rate.

Fed Chair Expects Strong Economy To Continue

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a scheduled press conference that he and his colleagues in the Federal Open Market Committee are confident that strong economic conditions will prevail over the next few years. Mr. Powell said that the Fed expects the national unemployment rate to remain near a 50-year low at approximately four percent; he said that the national unemployment rate is expected to remain low in the near-term. Chair Powell said that the economy has remained strong for 11 years; this is the record for the longest run of positive economic conditions.

Inflation remains below the Fed’s objective of 2.00 percent; Chair Powell said that the overall inflation rate averaged 1.30 percent, but core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors averaged 1.60 percent. Chair Powell said that the core inflation reading was a more reliable indicator of long-term inflation.

Jobs and wages increased in lower to middle-income communities, but the business and manufacturing sectors weakened. Mr. Powell suggested that the Fed would leave interest rates unchanged in 2020 unless economic and news events indicate that a change in the current monetary policy becomes necessary.

 

Case Shiller, FHFA Report Uptick In Home Price Growth In September

Case Shiller, FHFA Report Uptick In Home Price Growth In SeptemberCase-Shiller’s National Home Price Index showed 3.20 percent national home price growth in September, which was 0.10 percent higher than August’s reading of 3.10 percent. The 20-City Home Price Index showed the continued impact of exorbitant home prices on both coasts as home price growth slowed in high-cost areas and smaller markets experienced upward pressure on home prices as home buyers were seeking affordable homes.

Phoenix, Arizona led the 20-City Home Price Index with 6.00 percent year-over-year growth in September. Charlotte, North Caroline had 4.60 percent growth in home prices and Tampa, Florida rounded out the three cities with highest year-over-year home price growth with 4.50 percent growth. The 20-City Home Price Index has documented migration of home buyers away from prime metro areas to interior and southern states. Analysts said that lower mortgage rates helped affordability in some cases, but home price growth outpaced stagnant wage growth and inflation.

FHFA Data Shows Home Buyers Leaving High Priced Areas

Federal Housing Finance Agency reporting for the third quarter of 2019 supported Case-Shiller’s trends. Home prices in mid-sized cities are rising as buyers relocate to areas where home prices are accessible to moderate-income buyers. FHFA reported year-over-year price growth for homes owned or financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac slipped to 4.90 percent. This was the first time home price growth dipped below 5.00 percent growth since 2015.

FHFA reported home prices in Boise, Idaho grew by 11.10 percent year-over-year; home prices in Tucson, Arizona grew by 10.30 percent year-over-year in the third quarter. Lynn Fisher, a senior economic advisor for FHFA, said that home price growth rates in California and New York were lower than the national average.

The top three states with the largest year-over-year home price growth rates in the FHFA 20-City HPI were Idaho with 11.60 percent; Maine and Arizona tied with Utah with 7.90 percent home price growth. States with the lowest rates of home price growth were Illinois with 1.90 percent year-over-year growth, Connecticut reported 2.20 percent home price growth and Maryland home prices rose by 2.40 percent. FHFA reported that home prices have risen for 33 consecutive quarters; this is good news for homeowners, but also creates affordability challenges for would-be buyers facing high home prices and strict mortgage qualification standards.

Be sure to consult with your trusted Realtor and home mortgage professionals regarding your real estate concerns and transactions.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 16, 2016

Last week’s economic events included weekly releases on new jobless claims, mortgage rates and testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen concerning the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Here are the details:

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Drop

Freddie Mac reported that average mortgage rates fell across the board last Thursday, with the rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage seven basis points lower at 3.65 percent. The average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was six basis points lower at 2.95 percent, and the average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was two basis points lower at 2.83 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for 30 and 15 year fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Lower mortgage rates may encourage first-time and moderate income home buyers to enter the market, although slim supplies of available homes and rising home prices have caused ongoing concerns about affordability in many markets.

Weekly jobless claims were also lower. 269,000 new claims were filed as compared to estimated claims of 280,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 285,000 new jobless claims. This was the lowest reading in two months and suggests healthy labor markets as more workers find jobs. Readings lower than 300,000 new jobless claims indicate healthy jobs markets. The four-week rolling average of new jobless claims was lower by 3500 claims at 281,250 new claims filed. Analysts consider the four-week reading as a more accurate indicator of labor markets as it smooths out anomalies in weekly claims.

Yellen Testimony: Fed Won’t Change Course on Rates

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that she doesn’t expect interest rate cuts in view of slowing economic indicators. In testimony before the House Financial Services panel, Chair Yellen indicated that although there are signs of slower economic conditions, there was still room for economic growth. She cited a strong labor market and strong consumer and business spending as indicators of economic expansion. Analysts interpreted Chair Yellen’s testimony to indicate that the Fed would not likely raise its target federal funds rate in March.

Chair Yellen said that monetary policy is not on a “preset course”. Federal Reserve press releases consistently state that policy makers review current and developing domestic and global economic trends as part of any decision to raise rates. In view of this, Chair Yellen’s testimony did not cover what could happen if future economic developments influence Fed policy. Recent concerns over volatile financial markets caused by the weakening in China’s economy were cited as examples of “downside risks” that could impact the Fed’s monetary policy.

Readings for Consumer Sentiment suggest that consumers are also watching economic developments. February’s reading decreased to 90.7 as compared to January’s reading of 92.0.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic events include the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, federal reports on housing starts and building permits. FOMC minutes and weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – Feburary 8, 2016

Whats Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week Feburary 8 2016Last week’s scheduled economic news included reports on construction spending and several labor-related reports along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims. The details:

Construction Spending Higher in December

U.S. construction spending rose by 0.10 percent in December for a seasonally adjusted annual total of $1.12 trillion. The Commerce Department reported that construction firms spent 10.5 percent more than in 2014.Residential construction spending totaled $416.8 billion for 2015, which was 12.60 percent higher than in 2015.

Higher construction spending can be a double-edged sword, as it can indicate that builders are stepping up construction or that they are paying higher prices for labor and supplies. Builders have consistently cited labor shortages and slim supplies of buildable land as concerns. Short supplies of available homes impacted housing markets in 2015. Low inventories of homes drive up home prices and impact affordability for first-time buyers; these conditions eventually slow housing markets with fewer qualified buyers and home sales.

Fed Benchmarks Show Mixed Readings

The Federal Reserve consistently cites its goals of achieving maximum employment and an inflation rate of 2.00 percent as benchmarks for its decision to raise or not raise the target federal funds rate. National unemployment reached a new low of 4.90 percent in January against expectations of 5.00 percent and December’s reading of 5.00 percent. Inflation held steady with no increase in January; this offsets the good news concerning unemployment. Lower oil prices are holding inflation well below the Fed’s desired rate of 2.00 percent.

Mortgage Rates Fall, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower average rates across the board. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell by seven basis points to 3.72 percent; the corresponding rate for 15 year mortgages fell six basis points to 3.01 percent and the average rate for a5/1 adjustable rate mortgage dropped five basis points to2.85 percent. Average discount points were 0.60, 0.50 and 0.40 percent respectively.

Weekly jobless claims rose to 285,000 new claims against expectations of 280,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 277,000 new jobless claims. While rising jobless claims could suggest a slowing jobs market, the low unemployment rate suggests otherwise.

Non-Farm Payrolls, ADP Payrolls Fall

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, non-farm payrolls added 151,000 jobs in January as compared to expectations of 180,000 jobs added and December’s reading of 262,000 jobs added in December. Analysts said that January’s reading is further evidence that a long-running decline in new jobless claims has ended.

ADP payrolls were also lower in January with 205,000 new jobs posted as compared to December’s reading of 267,000 private sector jobs added. Holiday hiring likely impacted higher readings in December, but time will tell if declining job growth is trending.

What’s Ahead

Next week’s economic reports include data on job openings, consumer sentiment and Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s Congressional testimony.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – Feburary 1, 2016

Whats Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week Feburary 1 2016Last week’s economic events included S&P Case-Shiller’s home price indexes, reports on new and pending home sales and the Fed’s FOMC statement. The details:

Case-Shiller Reports Fast Paced Home Price Growth

According to S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes, U.S. home prices grew at their fastest pace in 16 months in November. Portland, Oregon led the charge with home prices increasing 11.10 percent year-over-year followed by San Francisco, California at 11.0 percent; Denver, Colorado posted a year-over-year gain of 10.90 percent. 14 cities posted home price gains while four cities posted declines in home prices and two cities posted no change on a month-to-month basis.

David M. Blitzer, chairman of the S&P Index Committee, noted that slumping oil prices and a strong dollar were posing challenges to domestic and international homebuyers. In spite of high demand, the supply of available homes continued to drive home prices up in most cities in the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index.

In related news, the Commerce Department reported that sales of new homes jumped to a year-over-year reading of 544,000 new home sales as compared to November’s upwardly revised reading of 491,000 new homes sold and expectations of a year-over-year reading of 506,000 new homes sold as of December. The December 2015 reading was 9.90 percent higher than for December 2014.

Analysts cited a shortage of new homes for driving sales; builders are facing obstacles in hiring and finding suitable land for development. Some builders were said to be targeting high-end buyers which leaves a shortage of homes available for first-time and mid-range home buyers.

The National Association of Realtors® reported a minor gain in pending home sales in December. Pending home sales gauge future closings and mortgage activity. December’s pending sales reading was higher by 0.10 percent month-to-month and posted a year-over-year gain of 4.50 percent. December’s gain represented the 16th consecutive monthly gain for pending home sales. Analysts had expected a month-to-month gain of 1 percent, but high demand and a slim supply of affordable homes are leaving would-be buyers on the sidelines.

Fed Holds Off on Raising Rate; Mortgage Rates Lower

The Federal Reserve announced its decision not to raise its target federal funds rate on Wednesday; Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates on Thursday. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage dropped by two basis points to 3.79 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage fell 3 basis points to 3.07 percent. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage were lower by one basis point at 2.90 percent. Discount points were unchanged at 0.6, 0.5 and 0.5 percent respectively.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes reports on construction spending, ADP payrolls, Non-Farm payrolls and the national unemployment rate.