Last week’s economic reports included readings on public and private sector jobs, the national unemployment rate and weekly readings on mortgage rates and new unemployment claims.

ADP: Private-Sector Job Growth Eases in December

Private-sector jobs increased by 202,000 jobs in December and exceeded expectations. November’s original reading of 60,000 new private-sector jobs was revised to 124,000 jobs.

Three and six-month average private-sector job growth rates were 159,000 and 151,000 jobs, but these growth rates fell short of 2018’s average monthly job growth rate of 218,000 jobs added.

Analysts said that private-sector job growth has settled into a more modest but steady pattern.

Non-Farm Payrolls: Public and Private-Sector Job Growth Slower in December

The Commerce Department reported 145,000 public and private-sector jobs added in December with 145,000 new jobs reported. Analysts expected 165,000 new jobs added, which was markedly less than 256,000 new jobs added in November.

Reduction in new jobs during December was likely due to slowing in holiday hiring and winter weather. Average hourly earnings for December rose by 0.10 percent and were lower than expectations of  0.30 percent growth. Slower wage growth contributed to predictions of slowing economic growth.

The national unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.50 percent in December.

Mortgage Rates, Weekly Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates last week; the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell eight basis points to 3.64 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged nine basis points lower at 3.07 percent.

Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 13 basis points lower at 3.30 percent. Discount points for fixed-rate mortgages averaged 0.70 percent and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

Freddie Mac predicted that rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will average 3.80 percent in 2020 as compared to 4.00 percent in 2019.

Weekly jobless claims fell to 214,000 new claims; analysts expected 219,000 new claims filed. 223,000 first-time claims were filed the prior week.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings from the National Association of Home Builders on housing market conditions. Commerce Department readings on housing starts and inflation will also be released. The University of Michigan will post data on consumer sentiment; weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will be posted as scheduled.

Last week’s economic reports included readings from Case-Schiller Home Price Indices and National Association of  Realtors® data on pending home sales. The Conference Board of the U.S. Senate also released its Consumer Confidence Index. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.

Case-Shiller Reports 0.10 Percent Uptick in National  Home Price Index

The National Home Price Index issued by Case-Shiller for October reported a year-over-year increase of 3.20 percent in home prices. Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index reflected the influence of low inventories of affordable homes as pricey metro areas reported slower growth if not declines in home-price growth.

 The top three cities reporting highest year-over-year home prices were Phoenix, Arizona with5.80 percent growth; Tampa, Florida with 4.90 percent growth and Charlotte, North Carolina, which had 4.80 percent home price growth.

Analysts said that the shift in higher home-price growth rates to smaller eastern and southern metro areas was evidence of continued shortages of affordable homes in coastal and major metro areas. Home prices in San Francisco, California declined for the third consecutive month in October after posting double-digit home price growth in recent years.

Pending home sales,  which are sales for which purchase offers have been made but not completed, rose 1.20 percent in November as compared to October. Regionally, pending home sales reports were mixed. The Western region led with a 5.50 percent growth rate in pending home sales. Pending home sales were 1.00 percent higher in the Midwest and fell by -0.10 percent in the Northeast. Pending home sales fell by 0.20 percent in the  South. 

Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors®, said that “The supply of available homes is not yet meeting healthy demand.” Real estate pros consider pending home sales a gauge of future closings.  

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Dip

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week; 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.72 percent and were two basis points lower. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by three basis points and averaged 3.16 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages was one basis point higher at 3.46 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

New jobless claims fell by 2000 claims to 222,000 claims filed last week; analysts expected a reading of 223,000 initial jobless claims filed. The U.S. Conference Board reported a lower consumer confidence reading of 126.50 in December, but this was caused by an upwardly-revised November index reading of 126.80.

Consumer confidence in current economic conditions rose 4.40 points to 170.00 points, but this momentum was offset by the reading for consumer confidence in economic conditions over the next six months from 100.30 points to 97.40 points. Analysts said that flagging consumer confidence indicated that the economy is not likely to grow significantly in the next six months.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes labor sector readings on private and public job growth and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and initial jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic reports were limited due to the Christmas holiday. New home sales data was released along with a weekly reading on mortgage rates.

Census Bureau: New Home Sales Hit Highest Level Since 1999

Mortgage rates below 4.00 percent propelled the highest number of new homes sold since 1999. 719,000 new homes were sold on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis in November.

Analysts expected November sales of new homes to reach 740,000 sales based on October’s original reading of 733,000 sales, but this reading was later revised to 710,000 sales.

New home sales reported are based on a narrow range of data and subject to major revisions. Slim inventories of previously-owned homes for sale also boosted new home sales.

The national median sale price for new homes was $330,800 in November and there was a 5.40 month supply of new homes available, which fell below the peak of a seven-month supply of available new homes reported in December 2018.

The Northeast region reported a 52.40 percent increase in new home sales; Sales of new homes in the South decreased by 4.10 percent and were unchanged in the Midwest. New home sales in the West rose by 7.50 percent.

Mortgage Rates Little Changed

Freddie Mac reported incremental changes in average mortgage rates; 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates averaged 3.74 percent and were one basis point higher than for the prior week. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.19 percent and were unchanged.

The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was eight basis points higher at 3.45 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Freddie Mac cautioned that the ongoing shortage of affordable homes is causing home prices to rise throughout the U.S; in recent years significant home price gains primarily occurred in coastal regions. Analysts said that as fewer affordable homes become available, housing markets and the general economy could be negatively affected.

Weekly reporting on first-time jobless claims was not released last week.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings from Case-Shiller on home prices, pending home sales, construction spending and weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

Last week’s economic reports included readings on inflation and retail sales; the Federal Reserve released its post-meeting statement from its Federal Open Market Committee. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims were also released.

Inflation, Retail Sales Rate Dip in November

The Commerce Department’s Consumer Price Index dipped in November to a growth rate of 0.20 percent as compared to October’s growth rate of 0.40 percent. Analysts expected inflation to slow to 0.20 percent growth.

Year-over-year inflation rose to 2.10 percent, which was its highest reading in a year. Analysts said rising rents, energy and healthcare costs caused the higher consumer inflation reading. November’s Core Consumer Price Index was unchanged at 0.20 percent growth. The Core CPI reading excludes volatile food and energy sectors.

Retails sales growth slowed to 0.20 percent in November as compared to October’s growth rate of 0.40 percent and expected growth of 0.50 percent. Retail sales exclusive of autos were also lower in November with a reading of 0.10 percent growth.

Analysts expected a reading of 0.40 percent growth; October’s reading for Retail Sales Excluding Autos showed 0.30 percent growth. Lower retail sales at the start of the winter holiday shopping season could signify cooling consumer confidence in the economy.

Fed Holds Steady on Key Interest Rate Range

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve announced no change to the target federal funds rate range at its meeting on Wednesday. The target range for the federal funds rate remained at 1.50 to 1.75 percent.

The Committee’s post-meeting statement suggested that FOMC members did not plan to change the federal funds rate in 2020 if economic conditions remain stable, but said that monetary policy decisions were flexible and could change as global and domestic economic conditions require.

Mortgage Rates, New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher average rates for fixed-rate mortgages last week. The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was five basis points higher at 3.73 percent; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged five basis points higher at 3.19  percent.

The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage was three basis points lower at 3.36 percent. Discount points rose across the board last week and averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims jumped to 252,000 last week, which surpassed expectations of 220,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 203,000 first-time claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic releases include the National Association of Home Builders’Housing Market Index and Commerce Department readings on housing starts and building permits issued. The National Association of Realtors® will release data on sales of pre-owned homes and weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic reports included readings on construction spending and multiple labor sector reports including private and public sector jobs and the national unemployment rate. Weekly reports on average mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims were also released.

Construction Spending Falls 0.80 Percent in October

Commerce Department reports on construction spending said that spending fell by 0.80 percent to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of $1.29 million. Analysts expected construction spending to increase by 0.40 percent based on September’s original reading of 0.50 percent growth, which was later revised to -0.30 percent.

Less construction of multifamily homes and apartments caused a decrease in October construction spending. Private construction spending fell by -1.00 percent in October; residential construction fell 0.90 percent as multi-family construction spending fell 1.60 percent after a 2.10 percent dip in September. Construction spending on single-family homes increased by 1.60 percent.

Low mortgage rates, a strong job market, and rising wages contributed to a strong demand for homes. Short inventories of available homes continued to pressure home builders to build more homes; construction of homes jumped 3.80 percent in October.

Mortgage Rates, Mixed, New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported no change in the average rate of 3.68 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 3.14 percent and were one basis point lower than for the prior week.

Rates for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages fell four basis points on average to 3.39 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages and 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

First-time jobless claims fell from the prior week’s reading of 213,000 claims to 203,000 claims filed last week. ADP reported 67,000 private-sector jobs added in November.

The federal government’s Non-Farm Payrolls report offset the dismal reading for private-sector job growth. 266,000 public and private sector jobs were added in November and surpassed expectations of 180,000 public and private sector jobs added.

Approximately 55,000 were accounted for as auto workers returned after a strike. 156,0000 public and private sector jobs were added in October. The national unemployment rate dropped to 3.50 percent in November and matched the reading for unemployment posted at the end of 1969.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on inflation, retail sales and the post-meeting statement from the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to give a press conference after the FOMC statement. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and new jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic readings included reports on inflation, mortgage rates, and first-time jobless claims. Monthly reporting on consumer sentiment was delayed.

Consumer Price Index: Inflation Rises in March

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.40 percent in March, which matched expectations and surpassed February’s month-to -month reading of 0.20 percent growth. The March reading showed the highest consumer price growth in 14 months; higher rents, fuel and food prices contributed to month-to-month price gains in March.

The Core CPI excludes volatile food and energy sectors and was unchanged in March although 0.20 percent growth was expected. February’s reading showed 0.10 percent growth. Inflation increased 1.90 percent year over year.

Mortgage Rates Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week that stopped weeks of decreasing rates. Mortgage rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 4.12 percent and rose four basis points. Rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages averaged 3.60 percent and were also four basis points higher than during the prior week. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages jumped 14 basis points to 3.80 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for 30-year fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 15-year fixed rate mortgages and 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Freddie Mac reported fewer mortgage applications in response to higher rates. Potential homebuyers were sensitive to higher mortgage rates, but may not have to wait long for lower rates to return. Low 10-year Treasury yields suggested that mortgage rates are likely to fall and to remain lower during the peak home-buying season. Mortgage rates are expected to stay comparatively low throughout 2019 according to Freddie Mac.

New Jobless Claims Fall To Lowest Since 1969

First-time jobless claims fell last week to 196,000 initial claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 204,000 new claims filed. Last week’s reading was the first to fall below 200,000 initial claims since 1969 and provided another sign of strong labor markets.

Federal Reserve FOMC Minutes Released

The Federal Reserve released minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held in March. The minutes explained the Committee’s reversal of its plan to raise the target range of the federal funds rate twice during 2019. Committee members said that they were holding off on raising rates due to slowing in domestic and global economic conditions. While Committee members said that the current economy is strong, they were willing to exercise patience in raising rates based on slower growth of home prices and potential impacts caused by Brexit and slowing in China’s economy.

What‘s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, housing starts and building permits issued and data on retail sales. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and first-time jobless claims will also be released.