Last week’s economic reporting included readings on housing markets from the National Association of Home Builders, sales of previously-owned homes, and government reports on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Slips Two Points in March

The National Association of Home Builders reported that home builder confidence in housing market conditions slipped two points to an index reading of 79. Analysts expected a reading of 80 based on February’s reading of 81. Robert Dietz, the NAHB’s chief economist, said: “While low existing inventory and favorable demographics are supporting demand, the impact of elevated inflation and higher interest rates suggest caution for the second half of 2022.”  Builders also expressed ongoing concerns over rising materials costs and labor shortages.

While springtime traditionally opens peak home-buying season, industry analysts cautioned that this year’s homebuying season may fall far short of its usual performance as concerns over the pandemic and rapidly rising inflation persist. Home prices increased significantly in 2021 and affordability issues challenged prospective first-time and moderate-income home buyers. Demand for homes may ease as fewer buyers can afford rising home prices, mortgage rates, and qualify for financing due to tighter mortgage lending standards.

Mortgage Rates Rise After Fed Raises Key Interest Rate for First Time in Four Years

In its customary statement made after the meeting of Federal Reserve policymakers, the Fed announced its first increase in the federal interest rate range in four years. The rate range increased from 0.00-0.25 percent to 0.25-0.50 percent. Fed leaders announced that a strategy of measured interest rate increases is planned to ease rapid inflation.

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 31 basis points to 4.16 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 30 basis points to an average of 3.39 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages averaged3.19 percent and were 22 basis points higher. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.20 percent for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims fell to 214,000 claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 229,000 first-time jobless claims filed. Analysts expected a reading of 220,000 new jobless claims filed. Continuing jobless claims were also lower with 1.42 million ongoing jobless claims filed; 1.49 million continuing claims were filed in the previous week.

The federal government reported a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 1.77 million housing starts in February; analysts estimated 1.70 million starts as compared to January’s reading of 1.66 million housing starts. Fewer building permits were issued in February with a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 1.86 million permits issued as compared to January’s year-over-year pace of 1.90 million building permits issued. Analysts expected a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 1.85 million building permits issued.  

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on new home sales and pending home sales; the University of Michigan will release its final consumer sentiment index for March. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published. 

Last week’s economic reports included readings on construction spending and labor-related reports on jobs and the national unemployment rate. Weekly data on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

Residential Con

Last week’s economic reporting included readings from S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indices and the FHFA on home prices, data on new home sales, and the Federal Reserve’s statement on the federal interest rate range. The University of Michigan released its monthly survey on Consumer Sentiment and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Home Price Growth Slows in November

Home prices rose at a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 18.80 percent in November according to S&P Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index. The 20-City Home Price Index, which is frequently used by real estate pros, reported that Phoenix, Arizona home prices rose by 32.20 percent year-over-year. Tampa, Florida home prices rose by 29 percent, and Miami, Florida home prices rose by 26.60 percent.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which tracks data on homes owned and financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported  17.50 percent year-over-year growth in home prices in November as compared to October’s reading of 17.40 percent.

New homes sold at an annual pace of 811,000 sales in December; analysts expected a reading of 757,000 sales. New homes sold at a pace of 725,000 sales year-over-year in November.

Fed Leaves Key Interest Rate Unchanged, Hints at Raising Rates in 2022

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve announced that it did not raise the key federal funds rate range of 0.00 to 0.25 percent, but indicated future rate increases would be used to control inflation. Combined impacts of rapidly rising home prices and mortgage rates presented challenges to first-time and moderate-income home buyers, but the median price of a single-family home fell to $377,700 in December.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported little change in mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped by one basis point to 3.55 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by one basis point to 2.80 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 2.70 percent and 10 basis points higher than in the previous week. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.60 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.20 percent.

Initial jobless claims fell to 260,000 new claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 290,000 first-time claims filed. Continuing jobless claims rose to 1.68 million claims filed from the prior week’s reading of 1.62 million ongoing claims filed 

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on construction spending, job openings and quits, public and private sector jobs growth, and the national unemployment rate. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on job openings and quits, month-to-month and year-over-year readings on inflation,  and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment survey for December. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released

Job Openings Increase as Quits Decrease as Inflation Remains High

The U.S. Labor Department reported that workers quit their jobs at record levels in October as job openings rose to 11 million openings as compared to expectations of 10.6 million job vacancies, which matched September’s reading for job openings. Fewer people quit jobs in October as 4.2 million workers left their jobs as compared to 4.4 million quits reported in September. The Labor Department said that many quits were driven by workers leaving for better jobs and career opportunities.

Analysts said that if job quits continue at their current pace through the end of 2021, new records for job quits will be established.

The Consumer Price Index, which measures U.S. inflation, rose by 0.80 percent from October to November. Analysts expected a monthly increase of 0.70 percent based on October’s month-to-month reading of 0.90 percent. The year-over-year inflation rate rose to 6.80 percent in November and surpassed October’s reading of 6.20 percent and the expected reading of 6.70 percent.

Mortgage Rates Lower, Jobless Claims Mixed

Freddie Mac reported slightly lower mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by one basis point to 3.01 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.38 percent and one basis point lower than for the previous week. Mortgage rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged four basis points lower at  2.45 percent. Discount points averaged 0.70 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims fell to 184,000 first-time claims filed as compared to 227,000 claims filed during the previous week. Analysts expected 211,000 initial jobless claims to be filed last week. Continuing jobless claims rose to 1.99 million ongoing claims filed.  Analysts expected 1.95 million continuing claims filings based on the prior week’s reading of 1.96 million ongoing jobless claims filed.

The University of Michigan reported rising consumer confidence in economic conditions for December with an index reading of 70.4. Analysts expected a reading of 68.0 based n November’s index reading of 67.4. Index readings above 50 indicate that most consumers are confident about current economic conditions.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings from the National Association of Home Builders on housing markets, The post-meeting statement from the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee will be released and Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference. The Commerce Department will release readings on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic reports included readings on home price trends, pending home sales, labor-sector readings on public and private-sector job growth. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

S&P Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slows in September

The pace of national home price growth slowed for the first time since May 2020 in September according to S&P Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index. Year-over-year home price growth slowed by 0.30 percent to 19.50 percent from August’s year-over-year home price growth reading of 19.80 percent. Demand for homes typically slows during fall and winter; some buyers were also sidelined by affordability concerns.

The 20-City Home Price Index for September showed some changes as Phoenix, Arizona continued to hold its top spot in the index and reported a 33.10 percent gain in home prices year-over-year. Tampa, Florida held second place with a  year-over-year home price growth rate of 27.70 percent. Miami, Florida reported a year-over-year home price growth rate of 25.20 percent. Western states have recently dominated home price growth rates, but Florida cities have surpassed former second and third-place cities San Diego, California, and Seattle, Washington.

Pending home sales of previously owned homes rose by 7.50 percent in October as compared to the expected pace of 0.70 percent and September’s reading of  2.40 percent fewer sales of homes for which purchase contracts were signed but sales were not yet completed. The surge in pending home sales was attributed to homebuyers’ haste to avoid expected higher mortgage rates and rapidly rising rents. The National Association of Realtors® noted that sales activity was higher than usual for fall, but also cautioned that the emergence of a new variation of the covid-19 virus could slow sales activity.

Mortgage Rates Little Changed as New Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported minimal activity for mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by one basis point to 3.11 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 2.39 percent and were three basis points lower. Interest rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages rose by two basis points to 2.40 percent on average. Discount points averaged 0.60 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Initial jobless claims rose to 222,000 claims filed and fell short of the expected reading of 240,000 new claims filed. 194,000 initial jobless claims were filed during the prior week. Continuing jobless claims fell to 1.96 million ongoing claims from the prior week’s reading of 2.06 million ongoing jobless claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on job openings and quits and the University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.