What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – May 22, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - May 22, 2023Last week’s economic reporting included readings on U.S. housing markets, sales of previously-owned homes, housing starts, and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

NAHB: U.S. Home Builder Confidence Rises in May

The National Association of Home Builders reported a five-point gain in home builder confidence in current housing market conditions in May. The index reading for May rose to 50 in May as compared to April’s reading of 45. Analysts expected a reading of 45 for May. Readings above 50 indicate a majority of home builders are positive about current housing market conditions. Component readings of the home builder index also rose as the gauge for current market conditions rose by five points to 50; the reading for market conditions over the next six months rose by seven points and the index reading for buyer traffic increased by two points.

Builders surveyed indicated that homeowners aren’t motivated to sell as many of them bought or refinanced their homes during the pandemic when mortgage rates were very low. Aspiring homeowners are turning to new homes for more options as demand for homes continues to outpace the number of previously-owned homes available.

 Higher demand for homes caused developers to reduce incentives to homebuyers. Homebuilders offering price reductions on new homes fell from 30 percent in April to 27 percent in May.  NAHB said home price reductions averaged six percent of original home prices.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.39 percent and were four basis points higher than for the previous week. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.75 percent, which was unchanged from the prior week.

242,000 initial jobless claims were filed last week as compared to 255,000 expected claims and 264,000 first-time jobless claims filed in the prior week.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on new and pending home sales, minutes from the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and the final consumer sentiment reading for May. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

 

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – May 1, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - May 1, 2023Last week’s economic reporting included readings on home prices, sales of new homes, and pending home sales. Monthly and year-over-year readings for inflation were published along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

February S&P Case-Shiller Housing Market Indices show slower home price growth

National home prices continued to rise in February, but at a slower pace according to S&P Case-Shiller home price indices. Month-to-month home prices rose by  0.40 percent in February and matched analysts’ expectations, but were lower than January’s reading of  2.50 percent home price growth.

S&P Case-Shiller’s 20-city home price index, which is frequently used by real estate professionals for tracking housing markets, rose by 0.10 percent month-to-month in February.  This was the first time home prices rose in eight months.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported an increase of  0.50 percent in home prices for homes owned and sold by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.Properties owned and sold by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are subject to loan limits and underwriting rules used by the two agencies.

In related news, the National Association of  Realtors® reported pending home sales fell by -5.20 percent in March compared to the expected reading of 0.50 percent growth and February’s reading of 0.80 percent in pending sales.

Mortgage Rates Mixed, Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported mixed movement on mortgage rates as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by four basis points to 6.43 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by five basis points and averaged 5.71 percent.

Initial jobless claims fell to 230,000 claims compared to the expected reading of 246,000 claims and the previous week’s reading of 245,000 claims. Continuing jobless claims fell to 1.86 million filings from the prior week’s reading of 1.87 million ongoing claims.

The University of Michigan reported no change in consumer responses to its consumer sentiment survey for April. The index reading of 63.5 for March was unchanged in April and also matched analysts’ forecasts.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on construction spending, the Federal Open Market Committee’s scheduled statement, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference. Readings on public and private-sector employment and national unemployment are also scheduled for release.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – April 17, 2022

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - April 17, 2022Last week’s economic reporting included readings on inflation, retail sales, and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

March Inflation Slows as Retail Sales Fall

Inflation slowed to a month-to-month pace of 0.10 percent in March as compared to February’s reading of 0.40 percent growth. Year-over-year inflation rose by 5.00 percent and fell short of analysts’ expected reading of 5.10 percent year-over-year inflation and February’s year-over-year inflation rate of 6.00 percent.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile readings for food and fuel, rose by 0.40 percent in March and matched analysts’ expectations.  The year-over-year reading for core inflation showed 5.00 percent inflation year-over-year in March; analysts expected a year-over-year reading of 5.10 percent and February’s year-over-year reading 6.00 percent. While food and fuel costs are significant for most households, the Fed views the core reading as a more stable indicator of inflationary trends.

Retail sales fell by 1.00 percent in March; analysts expected a reading of –0.50 percent. Retail sales excluding autos fell by –0.80 percent in March. Analysts forecasted a reading of –0.40 percent for March retail sales as compared with February’s reading of 0.00 percent change in retail sales.

Mortgage Rates Fall as Jobless Claims Increase

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates for the fifth consecutive week as the average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages fell by one basis point to 6.27 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages were also one basis point lower and averaged 5.54 percent.

First-time jobless claims rose to 239,000 claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 228,000 claims filed and analysts’ expectations of 235,000 new claims filed. Continuing jobless claims fell to 1.81 million ongoing claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.82 million claims.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for April showed a confidence reading of 63.5 as compared to the expected reading of 62 and the March reading of 62. Readings above 50 indicate that most consumers are confident about current economic conditions.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on U.S. housing markets, sales of previously owned homes, housing starts, and building permits issued. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

 

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – April 10, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - April 10, 2023

Last week’s economic reporting included readings on construction spending and labor sector readings on employment and the national unemployment rate for March. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Commerce Department: February Construction Spending Falls

The U.S. Commerce Department reported less construction spending in February than in January as construction spending fell by 0.10 percent to a year-over-year reading of $1.844 trillion for all types of construction. Year-over-year construction spending increased by 5.20 percent.  While total construction spending fell in February, residential construction spending increased.

Spending on single-family home construction slowed due to builders’ concerns over materials costs, supply chains, and a possible economic recession.  Seasonal weather conditions can also contribute to less construction spending during winter. Homebuilders continue to focus on high-end homes, which leaves limited options for first-time and moderate-income homebuyers. High demand for homes and increasing numbers of cash buyers are competing with owner-occupant home buyers who require mortgages to finance their homes.

High home prices and strict mortgage lending standards caused some would-be buyers to rent homes. Multi-family residential construction increased as demand for rental housing expends.

Mortgage Rates Mixed as Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported a lower average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages last week. Rates fell by four basis points to 6.28 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by eight basis points to 5.64 percent. Initial jobless claims fell to 228,000 new claims filed as compared to the expected reading of 200,000 new claims filed and the previous week’s reading of 246,000 initial jobless claims filed. Continuing jobless claims were unchanged at 228,000 claims filed.

During March the U.S. unemployment rate was 3.50 percent as compared to the expected rate of 3.60 percent and February’s jobless rate of 3.60 percent.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on inflation, minutes of the Federal Reserve’s recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – April 3, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - April 3, 2023Last week’s economic reporting included readings on home prices, inflation, and pending home sales. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Report Slower Home Price Growth in January

Home price growth cooled in January according to S&P Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index. Home prices increased by 2.50 percent year-over-year in January but rose at a slower pace than December’s reading of 4.60 percent. The FHFA Home Price Index also showed slower growth in January with year-over-year home price growth of  5.30 percent as compared to December’s home price growth rate of 6.60 percent.

The top three cities for home price growth in the 20-City Home Price Index were Miami, Florida, Tampa, Florida, and Atlanta, Georgia. In contrast, western U.S. cities posted the most declines in home prices. San Francisco, California, Seattle, Washington, and Portland, Oregon posted the steepest declines in home values in January. Home prices in western cities grew rapidly before the pandemic and are falling in post-pandemic markets.

Rapidly rising mortgage rates have narrowed the pool of qualified homebuyers and ongoing shortages of available homes are keeping home prices relatively high. As long as demand for homes exceeds available homes, it’s unlikely that housing markets will crash, but prospective buyers seem wary of recently rising mortgage rates and a slowing economy.

Mortgage Rates Fall as Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 10 basis points to 6.32 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 12 basis points and averaged 5.56 percent. Lower rates were welcome especially when some analysts expect mortgage rates to climb past eight percent in coming months.

198,000 new jobless claims were filed last week and outstripped predictions of 195,000 claims filed and the prior week’s reading of 191,000 first-time claims filed.

The final edition of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey for March fell from an index reading of  67 to 62. Index readings above 50 indicate that most consumers surveyed have a positive view of current economic conditions, Current sentiment remains below an index reading of 101 recorded before the pandemic.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on construction spending, public and private-sector reports on job growth, and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 20, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - March 20, 2023Last week’s economic reporting included readings on housing starts and building permits issued, the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, and Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s Senate testimony. The Commerce Department reported on housing starts and building permits issued published, and a monthly reading on consumer sentiment was published. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Two bank failures instill fear in depositors

In the aftermath of two bank failures last week,  US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that “the banking system is sound” during testimony to the US Senate last Thursday. When asked if federal protection could be extended to deposit accounts exceeding $250,000, Secretary Yellen replied that such action would “require approval from super majorities of the Boards of the Federal Reserve, the FDIC.and consultation between the Treasury Secretary and the president to determine that failure to protect uninsured depositors would create system risk and significant economic and financial consequences.”

NAHB: home builder confidence in US housing market improves

The National Association of Home Builders reported that its Housing Market Index for March increased by two points to an index reading of 44. Home builders expected a reading of 40 and the February HMI reading was 42. Readings below 50 indicate that most home builders surveyed were not confident about current housing market conditions.

The Commerce Department reported that housing starts exceeded expectations in February with 1.45 million starts reported as compared to the expected reading of 1.31 million starts and January’s reading of 1.32 million starts. Building permits issued also rose in February with 1.52 million permits issued as compared to expectations of 1.34 million permits issued and January’s reading of 1.34 million building permits issued.

Mortgage rates, jobless claims fall

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 13 basis points to 6.60 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by five basis points to an average rate of 5.90 percent.

Initial jobless claims were also lower with 192,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 212,000 claims filed. 1.68 million continuing jobless claims were filed as compared to 1.71 million ongoing claims filed in the previous week. 

What’s ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes, the post-meeting statement from the Federal Open Market Committee, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 13, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - March 13, 2023

Last week’s economic reporting included Fed chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to the House of Representatives, data on job growth, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Fed: Chairman Powell says no decision on March rate hike

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that no decision has been made about raising the Fed’s target interest rate range in March. Mr. Powell said, “We have not made any decision about the March meeting. We’re not going to do that until we see the additional data.” Mr. Powell said that the Fed is not on a “pre-set path. We will be guided by the incoming data and the evolving outlook.” Mr. Powell cited the upcoming jobs report and inflation data as examples of information used in decisions to raise or lower the Fed’s interest rate range. The Fed will announce its decision regarding its target interest rate range in its usual post-meeting statement on March 22.

Mr. Powell also said that the Fed may accelerate its pace of raising interest rates by 0.50 percent in its continued efforts to control inflation.

Freddie Mac reports higher mortgage rates

Average mortgage rates rose last week according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey.  The average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by eight basis points to 6.75 percent; the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by six basis points to 5.95 percent.

Jobless claims rose to 211,000 claims filed from the prior week’s reading of 190,000 initial claims filed. analysts expected 195,000 first-time claims filed. The national unemployment rate rose to 3.6 percent in February as compared to January’s 3.4 percent unemployment rate.

What’s Ahead

This week’s economic reporting includes readings on U.S. housing markets, inflation, retail sales, and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published. 

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 6, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - March 6, 2023Last week’s economic reporting included readings from S&P Case-Shiller home price indices, data on pending home sales, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

S&P Case-Shiller: December Home Price Growth Slows in 20-City Index

Home price growth slowed in December according to S&P Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index. Home prices rose by 4.60 percent year-over-year as compared to November’s year-over-year home price growth rate of 6.80 percent. The top three cities for home price growth in the 20-City Index were Miami, Florida, Tampa, Florida, and Atlanta, Georgia.

Former leading cities for home price growth have fallen to the bottom of the 20-Cities Home Price Index. Year-over-year home prices fell by -4.20 percent in San Francisco, California, and were – 1.80 percent lower in Seattle, Washington. The slowest pace of home price growth was reported in Portland, Oregon with a year-over-year home price growth rate of + 1.10 percent.

In related news, the Commerce Department reported construction spending rose by 5.70 percent year-over-year in January. Although analysts expected month-to-month construction spending to rise by 0.30 percent in January, spending fell by -0.10 percent as compared to December’s positive reading of 0.70 percent growth in month-to-month construction spending.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 15 basis points to 6.65 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 13 basis points on average. Initial jobless claims fell below 200,000 first-time jobless claims for the seventh consecutive week with a reading of  190,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the expected reading of 197,000 initial claims filed and the previous week’s revised reading of 192,000 claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on job growth, national unemployment, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims. Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to testify before House and Senate committees next week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will attend and will also testify. 

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 27, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - February 27, 2023Last week’s economic reporting included readings on sales of previously-owned homes, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and weekly readings on average mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Federal Reserve leaders raise key interest rate range

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve raised the Fed’s key interest rate range by 25 basis points to 4.50 to 4.75 percent. Fed officials cautioned that failure to ease inflationary pressure by raising interest rates could lead to inflation remaining higher than the Fed’s target inflation pace of two percent per year.

In other matters,  the minutes of the Fed’s most recent Committee meeting indicated  “a number” of  Fed officers said that “a drawn-out period of  negotiations to raise the federal debt limit could pose significant risks to the financial system and the broader economy.” Failure to increase the federal debt limit could cause the government to default on its loan obligations and lead to political implications as the 2024 election year approaches.

Sales of previously-owned homes fall in January

Previously-owned homes sold at their lowest level since 2010 and declined for the twelfth consecutive month in January. This was the longest consecutive streak of monthly price declines since sales of previously-owned homes were first tracked in 1999.  Previously-owned homes sold at a year-over-year pace of 4 million sales; analysts expected an annual pace of 4.02 million sales based on December’s reading of 4.03 million sales.

New homes sold at a pace of 670,000 sales in January, but year-over-year sales were down by 19.4 percent. This was the fourth consecutive month when new home sales rose on a month-to-month basis.

Mortgage rates rise, jobless claims fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates as rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 18 basis points higher at 6.50 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.76 percent and 25 basis points higher than for the previous week.

New jobless claims fell last week with 192,000 initial claims filed as compared to the expected reading of 197,000 first-time claims filed and the previous week’s reading of 195,000 first-time claims filed. 

Consumer sentiment rose to an index reading of 67  in February as compared to the expected reading of 66.4, which matched January’s reading. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is based on a benchmark reading of 50; readings above 50 indicate that a majority of consumers surveyed held positive views of current economic conditions.

What’s ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings from S&P Case-Shiller home price indices and data on pending home sales. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published. 

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 21, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - February 21, 2023Last week’s economic news included readings on housing markets, inflation, retail sales, and data on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

NAHB: Homebuilder sentiment improves in February

The National Association of Home Builders reported higher builder confidence in current U.S. housing market conditions with an index reading of 42 for February; Analysts expected a reading of 37 and January’s reading was 35. NAHB index readings over 50 indicate that most home builders have a positive view of housing market conditions.

Factors influencing positive builder sentiment included lower mortgage rates and expectations of less severe winter weather conditions as spring approaches. February’s reading was the second consecutive month for improved builder sentiment since September 2022; and was the first time builder sentiment improved at its current pace since June 2013. The NAHB said in its statement that “the housing market may be turning a corner.”

In related news, The Commerce Department reported that 1.34 million building permits were issued in January, which fell short of the expected reading of 1.35 million building permits issued and matched December’s reading. Year-over-year housing starts were reported at  1.31 million starts in January; analysts expected a reading of 1.35 million housing starts and December’s reading showed 1.37 million housing starts.

January retail sales rose by 3 percent and exceeded expectations of a 1.9 percent increase in retail sales and surpassed December’s negative reading of  -1.1 percent. Retail sales excluding the automotive sector rose by 2.3 percent in January and exceeded expectations of a 0.9 percent increase and December’s negative reading of  -0.9 percent.

Mortgage rates rise as jobless claims fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by two basis points to 6.32 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 15 basis points to 5.51 percent.

First-time jobless claims fell to 194,000 initial claims filed last week as compared to the expected reading of 200,000 claims filed and the prior week’s reading of 195,000 first-time claims filed. 1.70 million continuing jobless claims were reported last week as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.69 million ongoing claims filed.

What’s ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes, minutes of the February 1 meeting of the Federal reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee, and monthly data on inflation and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.