What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – April 17, 2022

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - April 17, 2022Last week’s economic reporting included readings on inflation, retail sales, and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

March Inflation Slows as Retail Sales Fall

Inflation slowed to a month-to-month pace of 0.10 percent in March as compared to February’s reading of 0.40 percent growth. Year-over-year inflation rose by 5.00 percent and fell short of analysts’ expected reading of 5.10 percent year-over-year inflation and February’s year-over-year inflation rate of 6.00 percent.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile readings for food and fuel, rose by 0.40 percent in March and matched analysts’ expectations.  The year-over-year reading for core inflation showed 5.00 percent inflation year-over-year in March; analysts expected a year-over-year reading of 5.10 percent and February’s year-over-year reading 6.00 percent. While food and fuel costs are significant for most households, the Fed views the core reading as a more stable indicator of inflationary trends.

Retail sales fell by 1.00 percent in March; analysts expected a reading of –0.50 percent. Retail sales excluding autos fell by –0.80 percent in March. Analysts forecasted a reading of –0.40 percent for March retail sales as compared with February’s reading of 0.00 percent change in retail sales.

Mortgage Rates Fall as Jobless Claims Increase

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates for the fifth consecutive week as the average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages fell by one basis point to 6.27 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages were also one basis point lower and averaged 5.54 percent.

First-time jobless claims rose to 239,000 claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 228,000 claims filed and analysts’ expectations of 235,000 new claims filed. Continuing jobless claims fell to 1.81 million ongoing claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.82 million claims.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for April showed a confidence reading of 63.5 as compared to the expected reading of 62 and the March reading of 62. Readings above 50 indicate that most consumers are confident about current economic conditions.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on U.S. housing markets, sales of previously owned homes, housing starts, and building permits issued. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

 

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 27, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - March 27, 2023Last week’s financial and economic reporting included readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes, along with weekly data on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Single-Family Home Sales Rise in February

Year-over-year sales of previously owned homes rose 14.5 percent to a seasonally-adjusted pace of 4.58 million sales. Analysts expected 4.20 million sales of pre-owned homes as compared to January’s year-over-year reading of 4.0 million sales. February’s increased sales halted 12 months of falling sales of previously-owned homes. February’s reading marked the highest pace of sales since July 2020, when sales of pre-owned homes rose by 22.40 percent.

The National Association of Realtors® said that February’s reading represented the largest increase in existing home sales since the inception of reporting sales of previously-owned homes in 1999. The median sale price of existing homes was $363,000 in February. There was a 2.6-month supply of homes available in February.

February sales of new single-family homes rose to 640,000 sales from January’s reading of 633,000 sales. While analysts said that a brief lull in climbing mortgage rates contributed to increased home sales, new home sales remained 22.60 percent lower than in February 2021.

FOMC Statement: Fed Strives to Hold Inflation in Check, Mortgage Rates Fall

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee released the minutes of its March meeting; the Committee voted to raise its key interest rate range to 4.75 to 5.00 percent; the Committee reaffirmed its goal of returning inflationary growth to two percent. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed was planning to continue rate hikes before the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. Chairman Powell said the bank’s failure forced Fed policymakers to consider a halt to interest rate hikes.

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 18 basis points to 6.42 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 22 basis points to 5.68 percent. Initial jobless claims fell slightly to 191,000 claims as compared to the previous week’s reading of 192,000 first-time claims filed. Continuing jobless claims rose to 1.69 million claims filed from the prior week’s reading of 1.68 million ongoing claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on home prices, inflation, and consumer sentiment. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 20, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - March 20, 2023Last week’s economic reporting included readings on housing starts and building permits issued, the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, and Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s Senate testimony. The Commerce Department reported on housing starts and building permits issued published, and a monthly reading on consumer sentiment was published. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Two bank failures instill fear in depositors

In the aftermath of two bank failures last week,  US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that “the banking system is sound” during testimony to the US Senate last Thursday. When asked if federal protection could be extended to deposit accounts exceeding $250,000, Secretary Yellen replied that such action would “require approval from super majorities of the Boards of the Federal Reserve, the FDIC.and consultation between the Treasury Secretary and the president to determine that failure to protect uninsured depositors would create system risk and significant economic and financial consequences.”

NAHB: home builder confidence in US housing market improves

The National Association of Home Builders reported that its Housing Market Index for March increased by two points to an index reading of 44. Home builders expected a reading of 40 and the February HMI reading was 42. Readings below 50 indicate that most home builders surveyed were not confident about current housing market conditions.

The Commerce Department reported that housing starts exceeded expectations in February with 1.45 million starts reported as compared to the expected reading of 1.31 million starts and January’s reading of 1.32 million starts. Building permits issued also rose in February with 1.52 million permits issued as compared to expectations of 1.34 million permits issued and January’s reading of 1.34 million building permits issued.

Mortgage rates, jobless claims fall

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 13 basis points to 6.60 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by five basis points to an average rate of 5.90 percent.

Initial jobless claims were also lower with 192,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 212,000 claims filed. 1.68 million continuing jobless claims were filed as compared to 1.71 million ongoing claims filed in the previous week. 

What’s ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes, the post-meeting statement from the Federal Open Market Committee, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 13, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - March 13, 2023

Last week’s economic reporting included Fed chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to the House of Representatives, data on job growth, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Fed: Chairman Powell says no decision on March rate hike

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that no decision has been made about raising the Fed’s target interest rate range in March. Mr. Powell said, “We have not made any decision about the March meeting. We’re not going to do that until we see the additional data.” Mr. Powell said that the Fed is not on a “pre-set path. We will be guided by the incoming data and the evolving outlook.” Mr. Powell cited the upcoming jobs report and inflation data as examples of information used in decisions to raise or lower the Fed’s interest rate range. The Fed will announce its decision regarding its target interest rate range in its usual post-meeting statement on March 22.

Mr. Powell also said that the Fed may accelerate its pace of raising interest rates by 0.50 percent in its continued efforts to control inflation.

Freddie Mac reports higher mortgage rates

Average mortgage rates rose last week according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey.  The average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by eight basis points to 6.75 percent; the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by six basis points to 5.95 percent.

Jobless claims rose to 211,000 claims filed from the prior week’s reading of 190,000 initial claims filed. analysts expected 195,000 first-time claims filed. The national unemployment rate rose to 3.6 percent in February as compared to January’s 3.4 percent unemployment rate.

What’s Ahead

This week’s economic reporting includes readings on U.S. housing markets, inflation, retail sales, and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published. 

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 6, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - March 6, 2023Last week’s economic reporting included readings from S&P Case-Shiller home price indices, data on pending home sales, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

S&P Case-Shiller: December Home Price Growth Slows in 20-City Index

Home price growth slowed in December according to S&P Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index. Home prices rose by 4.60 percent year-over-year as compared to November’s year-over-year home price growth rate of 6.80 percent. The top three cities for home price growth in the 20-City Index were Miami, Florida, Tampa, Florida, and Atlanta, Georgia.

Former leading cities for home price growth have fallen to the bottom of the 20-Cities Home Price Index. Year-over-year home prices fell by -4.20 percent in San Francisco, California, and were – 1.80 percent lower in Seattle, Washington. The slowest pace of home price growth was reported in Portland, Oregon with a year-over-year home price growth rate of + 1.10 percent.

In related news, the Commerce Department reported construction spending rose by 5.70 percent year-over-year in January. Although analysts expected month-to-month construction spending to rise by 0.30 percent in January, spending fell by -0.10 percent as compared to December’s positive reading of 0.70 percent growth in month-to-month construction spending.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 15 basis points to 6.65 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 13 basis points on average. Initial jobless claims fell below 200,000 first-time jobless claims for the seventh consecutive week with a reading of  190,000 first-time claims filed as compared to the expected reading of 197,000 initial claims filed and the previous week’s revised reading of 192,000 claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on job growth, national unemployment, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims. Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to testify before House and Senate committees next week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will attend and will also testify. 

S&P Case-Shiller: December Home Price Growth Slows

S&P Case-Shiller: December Home Price Growth SlowsHome price growth slowed in December according to the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index. Year-over-year home prices rose by 4.6 percent in December as compared to November’s reading of 6.8 percent growth. Rising mortgage rates caused home prices to dip as potential buyers delayed home purchases and demand for homes fell.

Craig J. Lazzara, managing director of S&P Dow Jones Indices, said: “The prospect of stable, or higher mortgage rates means that mortgage financing remains a headwind for home prices, while economic weakness, including the possibility of a recession, may also constrain potential buyers. Mr. Lazzara concluded: “Given these prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment,  home prices may well continue to weaken.”

The S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index fell by a seasonally-adjusted figure of -0.30 percent in December but rose by 5.80 percent year over year.

S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Index Shows Slowing Home Price Growth for December

Nationally home prices fell by -0.30 percent month-to-month and were 5.80 percent higher year-over-year.

Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index is widely used as a benchmark for U.S. home prices; December’s top three cities for rising home prices were Miami, Florida with 15.90  percent year-over-year home price growth; Tampa, Florida followed with 13.9 percent home price growth and Atlanta, Georgia reported 10.4 percent year-over-year home price growth in December.  The 20-City Index reported 4.60 percent year-over-year home price growth as compared to November’s reading of 6.80 percent year-over-year home price growth.

Home prices fell the most in formerly hot markets; in San Francisco, California home prices dropped by -4.20 percent year-over-year and home prices fell by -1.80 percent in Seattle, Washington. Portland, Oregon had the lowest pace of home price growth with a year-over-year reading of 1.10 percent.

In related news, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported home price growth data for homes owned or financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Home prices rose 8.40 percent year-over-year between the fourth quarters of 2021 and 2022.

Analysts said that lower home prices were caused by rising mortgage rates and lower demand for homes caused by buyers’ concerns about a possible recession. Limited supplies of available homes helped reduce potential losses caused by less buyer demand for homes. High mortgage rates, competition with cash buyers, relatively high home prices, and slim supplies of available homes continue to present challenges to first-time and moderate-income home buyers.

 

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 27, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - February 27, 2023Last week’s economic reporting included readings on sales of previously-owned homes, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and weekly readings on average mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Federal Reserve leaders raise key interest rate range

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve raised the Fed’s key interest rate range by 25 basis points to 4.50 to 4.75 percent. Fed officials cautioned that failure to ease inflationary pressure by raising interest rates could lead to inflation remaining higher than the Fed’s target inflation pace of two percent per year.

In other matters,  the minutes of the Fed’s most recent Committee meeting indicated  “a number” of  Fed officers said that “a drawn-out period of  negotiations to raise the federal debt limit could pose significant risks to the financial system and the broader economy.” Failure to increase the federal debt limit could cause the government to default on its loan obligations and lead to political implications as the 2024 election year approaches.

Sales of previously-owned homes fall in January

Previously-owned homes sold at their lowest level since 2010 and declined for the twelfth consecutive month in January. This was the longest consecutive streak of monthly price declines since sales of previously-owned homes were first tracked in 1999.  Previously-owned homes sold at a year-over-year pace of 4 million sales; analysts expected an annual pace of 4.02 million sales based on December’s reading of 4.03 million sales.

New homes sold at a pace of 670,000 sales in January, but year-over-year sales were down by 19.4 percent. This was the fourth consecutive month when new home sales rose on a month-to-month basis.

Mortgage rates rise, jobless claims fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates as rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 18 basis points higher at 6.50 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.76 percent and 25 basis points higher than for the previous week.

New jobless claims fell last week with 192,000 initial claims filed as compared to the expected reading of 197,000 first-time claims filed and the previous week’s reading of 195,000 first-time claims filed. 

Consumer sentiment rose to an index reading of 67  in February as compared to the expected reading of 66.4, which matched January’s reading. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index is based on a benchmark reading of 50; readings above 50 indicate that a majority of consumers surveyed held positive views of current economic conditions.

What’s ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings from S&P Case-Shiller home price indices and data on pending home sales. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published. 

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 21, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - February 21, 2023Last week’s economic news included readings on housing markets, inflation, retail sales, and data on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

NAHB: Homebuilder sentiment improves in February

The National Association of Home Builders reported higher builder confidence in current U.S. housing market conditions with an index reading of 42 for February; Analysts expected a reading of 37 and January’s reading was 35. NAHB index readings over 50 indicate that most home builders have a positive view of housing market conditions.

Factors influencing positive builder sentiment included lower mortgage rates and expectations of less severe winter weather conditions as spring approaches. February’s reading was the second consecutive month for improved builder sentiment since September 2022; and was the first time builder sentiment improved at its current pace since June 2013. The NAHB said in its statement that “the housing market may be turning a corner.”

In related news, The Commerce Department reported that 1.34 million building permits were issued in January, which fell short of the expected reading of 1.35 million building permits issued and matched December’s reading. Year-over-year housing starts were reported at  1.31 million starts in January; analysts expected a reading of 1.35 million housing starts and December’s reading showed 1.37 million housing starts.

January retail sales rose by 3 percent and exceeded expectations of a 1.9 percent increase in retail sales and surpassed December’s negative reading of  -1.1 percent. Retail sales excluding the automotive sector rose by 2.3 percent in January and exceeded expectations of a 0.9 percent increase and December’s negative reading of  -0.9 percent.

Mortgage rates rise as jobless claims fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by two basis points to 6.32 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 15 basis points to 5.51 percent.

First-time jobless claims fell to 194,000 initial claims filed last week as compared to the expected reading of 200,000 claims filed and the prior week’s reading of 195,000 first-time claims filed. 1.70 million continuing jobless claims were reported last week as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.69 million ongoing claims filed.

What’s ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes, minutes of the February 1 meeting of the Federal reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee, and monthly data on inflation and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 13, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - February 13, 2023Last week’s economic reporting included coverage of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech to the Economic Club of Washington and the University of Michigan’s data on consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

 

Federal Reserve: Chairman Jerome Powell Says the “Disinflationary Process” is Ongoing


Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in remarks made to the Economic Club of Washington that the “disinflationary process” has started, but he also indicated that January’s unexpectedly strong jobs report indicated that further interest rate hikes are necessary: “We think we need to do further rate increases and we think we’ll need to hold policy at a restrictive level for a period of time.” 

 

Several other senior Fed officials said that further interest rate hikes would be required to keep inflation in check; as 517,000 jobs were added last week after analysts predicted declining job growth as compared to the expected reading of 187,000 jobs added. The national unemployment rate fell to a 54-year low of 3.4 percent.

 

Analysts cautioned that the Fed would likely continue to raise rates to control inflation but Chairman Powell said that the Fed would likely raise rates only “a couple more times.”

 

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Rise


Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week; the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages was three basis points higher at 6.12 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 11 basis points to 5.25 percent. 

 

Jobless claims also rose last week with 196,000 new claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 183,000 initial claims filed. 1.69 million continuing jobless claims were filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 1.65 million ongoing claims.

 

The University of Michigan reported that its initial consumer sentiment reading for February rose to an index reading of 66.4 as compared to the expected reading of 65.1 and last month’s index reading of 64.9. Consumer sentiment readings over 50 indicate most survey respondents were positive about current economic conditions. 

 

The University also released monthly readings on year-over-year inflationary predictions. February’s early reading predicts 4.2 percent year-over-year inflation as compared to January’s reading of 3.9 percent year-over-year inflation.
 


What’s Ahead


This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on home prices, inflation, retail sales, and data on building permits issued and housing starts. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 6, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - February 6, 2023Last week’s economic reporting included readings on home price growth from S&P Case-Shiller and the Federal Housing Finance Administration. Monthly reports on job growth and unemployment were released by the federal government and ADP. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

S&P Case-Shiller HPI: Home Prices Drop in November

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices revealed that U.S. home prices fell for the fifth consecutive month in November. The National Home Price Index fell by -3.1 percent year over year in November as compared to a positive reading of 2.8 percent home price growth in October. Miami, Florida, Tampa, Florida, and Atlanta, Georgia held the top three places in the 20-City Home Price Index. Detroit, Michigan was the only city to post a positive reading for home price growth in November’s 20-City Home Price Index.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported that prices of homes owned or financed by the two government-sponsored enterprises fell by 0.10 percent in November. Analysts expect that home prices will continue to fall in the coming months.

Mortgage Rates and Jobless Claims

Average fixed mortgage rates fell last week. Freddie Mac reported that the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by four basis points to 6.09 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by three basis points to 5.14 percent.

183,000 first-time jobless claims were filed as compared to the expected reading of 195,000 new jobless claims and the previous week’s reading of 186,000 first-time jobless claims filed. 1.66 million continuing jobless claims were filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.67 million ongoing jobless claims filed.

Public and Private Sector Job Growth

The federal government’s Non-Farm payrolls report for January posted 517,000 jobs added as compared to the expected reading of 187,000 jobs added and December’s reading of 260,000 jobs added.ADP reported 106,000 private-sector jobs added in January as compared to expectations of 190,000 jobs added and December’s reading of 253,000 private-sector jobs added.

The national unemployment rate for January was 3.4 percent; analysts expected an unemployment rate of 3.6 percent and December’s unemployment rate was 3.5 percent. 

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on consumer sentiment, inflation, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.