Case-Shiller Reports Home Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in 7 Years

Case-Shiller Reports Home Prices Rise at Fastest Pace in 7 YearsS & P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices reported the fastest pace of U.S home price growth in seven years. National home prices grew by 10.40 percent year-over-year in December as compared to November’s reading of  9.50 percent home price growth on a year-over-year basis.

The S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index reported home price growth in 18 of 20 cities included in the index. Detroit, Michigan did not report home price data for December. Phoenix, Arizona held the top position in the 20-City Index for the 19th consecutive month with year-over-year home price growth averaging 14.40 percent. Home prices in Seattle, Washington home prices held second place with year-over-year growth of 13.60 percent. San Diego, California home prices grew 13.00 percent year-over-year.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency released home price data for homes owned or financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Home prices rose by 10.80 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020 as compared to home prices in the fourth quarter of 2019. Home prices reported by FHFA rose by 3.80 percent between the third and fourth quarters of 2020.

Idaho home prices reported by FHFA rose by 21.10 percent year-over-year.  Montana home prices grew by 15.50 percent; Utah followed closely with 15.40 percent home price growth. FHFA reported the highest pace of home price growth for cities in Boise, Idaho; home prices in San Francisco, California grew at the slowest pace. This data supports the trend of homeowners moving from costly metro areas to inland suburbs where they can buy larger homes for lower prices.

Rapidly Rising Home Prices Impact Affordability

While homeowners welcome quickly rising home prices, affordability issues worry real estate analysts and prospective home buyers. The covid-19 pandemic caused home prices to rise as homeowners fled congested urban areas for suburban and rural areas.

Supplies of available homes fall as demand for homes keeps rising during the pandemic. Millennials are in their peak home-buying years but many current homeowners are waiting out the pandemic to sell. Low inventories of available homes and rising building materials costs add to the shortage of homes in general and affordable homes in particular.

First-time and moderate-income home buyers face increasing challenges as home prices and mortgage rates rise. Mortgage approval standards are difficult to meet as rising home prices cause housing payments and down payment requirements to increase. In addition to property taxes and hazard insurance, buyers who cannot pay 20 percent down must also pay for mortgage insurance.

Skyrocketing home prices should ease when demand for homes slows, but that won’t happen until supplies of available homes catch up to buyer demand.

Face The Numbers, A Mortgage That Works For You

Face The Numbers, A Mortgage That Works For YouBefore taking out a mortgage to buy a home, it’s time to take a realistic survey of your finances so that you can determine your price range and what size of home you can comfortably afford.

Buying a home that suits your finances will mean that your mortgage payments will be easily within your budget and won’t cause you financial stress.

Stay In Your Price Range

Many people, when offered a large mortgage by the bank, are tempted to buy homes that are outside of their price range.

It’s easy to see why a larger property or a more luxurious home might be appealing, but by stretching too far beyond your means you are courting with disaster.

If your monthly mortgage rate just barely fits within your budget, without room for savings, retirement contributions, or to build up an emergency fund – it will only be a matter of time before things start to get tight.

What happens if you lose your job, or if your income decreases? If you are unable to meet your mortgage payments, it is easy to slip very quickly into debt or even bankruptcy. This is why it is so crucial to buy a home that fits your budget.

Here Are Some Questions To Ask Yourself For Figuring Out How Much Mortgage You Can Comfortably Afford:

  • Make a detailed budget that chronicles your monthly incomings and outgoings. How much money do you really have each month to work with?
  • What type of safety net do you have if something goes wrong, in terms of savings and family support?
  • How large of a down payment are you able to save up? At least 20% of the property cost is recommended, but more is always better.
  • How much outstanding debt do you have from your other lenders, such as your credit card debts, your bank loans, student loans, etc?
  • How stable is your income? Do you have a steady paycheck or are you self-employed with variable income?
  • Are you willing to change your lifestyle and lead a more frugal life to get the house you want? Is there anywhere you can cut expenses and spend more on your mortgage payment?
  • What will be the total of all of the costs associated with purchasing the home, including closing costs, inspections and other fees?
  • What are the costs associated with moving? Don’t forget to include the moving van, new appliances, hotel expenses, gas and meals out during the transition period.

Once you have asked yourself these questions and taken a close look at your budget, you will be able to determine realistically what you can afford when buying a home – so that you can find that dream home that meets your budget. For more helpful advice, contact your trusted mortgage professional.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – October 5, 2020

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - October 5, 2020Last week’s economic news included readings from Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, along with Commerce Department readings on public and private-sector job growth and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. Weekly reports on jobless claims and mortgage rates were also released.

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Ramps Up as Demand for Homes Increases

July home prices rose at a year-over-year rate of 4.80 percent in July as compared to June’s reading of 4.40 percent. Shortages of available homes were driven by demand. Homebuyers were looking for larger homes to accommodate working from home and also wanted to leave congested urban areas.

Home prices in Case-Shiller’s 20-City Index rose by 3.90 percent year-over-year in July; Home prices in participating cities grew by 3.50 percent in June. Home prices grew fastest in Phoenix, Arizona with a year-over-year growth rate of  9.20 percent. Seattle, Washington home prices grew by 7.00 percent, and home prices in Charlotte, North Carolina rose by 6.00 percent.

Craig Lazzara, managing director and global head of index investment strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said,

“Prices were particularly strong in the Southwest and West were comparatively weak in the Midwest and Northeast.” 16 of 19 cities in the 20-City Home Price Index reported a faster growth rate for July’s home prices. Detroit, Michigan did not report data for July’s 20-City Home Price Index.

Construction spending in August jumped from July’s reading of 0.70 percent growth to 1.40 percent. This could be positive news if it indicates a faster pace of home construction, but it could also reflect higher prices for building materials. Rising costs of building materials are typically added to home prices, which further challenges first-time and moderate-income home buyers.

Mortgage Rates and Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower fixed mortgage rates last week; The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped two basis points to 2.88 percent; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged four basis points lower at 2.36 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages was unchanged at 2.90 percent. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.70 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages 0.20 percent. 

New jobless claims fell to 837,000 claims filed from the prior week’s reading of 873,000 initial claims filed. Ongoing claims were also lower last week with 11.77 million filings as compared to 12.75 million ongoing claims filed in the previous week.

The national unemployment rate dipped below 8.00 percent for the first time since March with a reading of 7.90 percent. Analysts said that the number of people in the workforce dropped from 164.5 million in February to 160.1 million workers in September; this indicates that 4.4 million workers have left the workforce.

Consumer sentiment rose to its highest level since March according to the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index reading for September was 80.40 as compared to August’s index reading of  74.10.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on job openings and the minutes from the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Readings on public and private-sector jobs will also be reported.

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Grinds to Lowest Rate in 2 Years

Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Grinds to Lowest Rate in 2 YearsHome prices rose by 0.40 percent in October according to Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index and were unchanged from September’s year-over-year reading of 5.50 percent growth.

Slower growth in home prices could help some would-be home buyers enter the market, but rapidly rising mortgage rates have sidelined buyers concerned with affordability and meeting strict mortgage lending requirements.

High Mortgage Rates Stifle Demand for Homes

October’s year-over-year reading for home price growth was the lowest in two years, but home price growth continued to exceed wage increases; builders continued to face labor shortages and higher materials costs. Rising mortgage rates were a major cause of lower demand for homes as the average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage increased from les than 3.50 percent at the beginning of 2017 to a high point of 4.94 percent in September.

Mortgage rates have fallen in recent weeks but remain more than one percent higher than they were two years ago. Recent volatility in financial markets and concerns over general economic conditions also contributed to a lower pace of home price growth.

Las Vegas Leads Cities with Highest Home Price Growth

The top three cities in October’s Case-Shiller 20-City index were Las Vegas, Nevada with year-over-year hone price growth of 12.80 percent; San Francisco, California’s home prices rose by 7.90 percent year-over-year and Phoenix, Arizona home prices rose by 7.70 percent year-over-year. 

October’s home price growth rates suggest that West Coast cities such as San Francisco, and Seattle, Washington may be losing their domination over double-digit home price growth rates they’ve enjoyed in recent years. Slower rates of home price growth could indicate that home prices have topped out in costly metro areas.

David M. Blitzer, managing director and chair of S&P Dow Jones Index Committee, echoed analyst’s concerns: “Rising home prices and mortgage rates mean fewer people can afford to buy a house.” The Fed’s recent decision to raise its key interest rate range for the third time in 2018 concerned some economists, but the Fed said that its Federal Open Market Committee predicts that it will raise rates only twice next year based on current and expected economic conditions in 2019.

Banks and credit-card companies typically follow the Fed’s interest rate decisions; this means that rates for consumer lending including mortgages are likely to increase in 2019.

Newest Home Pricing Data Shows Homes Becoming More Attainable Across The Country

Newest Home Pricing Data Shows Homes Becoming More Attainable Across The CountryCase-Shiller’s 20-city home price index for September reported the lowest pace of year-over-year home price growth in almost two years. Lower home prices balanced housing markets between sellers and buyers, but home prices continued to grow approximately two times faster than wage growth.

Case-Shiller’s 20 city home price index for September posted a home price growth rate of 5.20 percent as compared to August’s year-over-year growth rate of 5.70 percent. While analysts expected slower rates of home price growth, they weren’t expecting the steep declines seen in September’s report.

David Blitzer, Chairman and CEO of the S&P Dow Jones Indices Committee, said “Home prices plus data on house sales and construction confirm the slowdown in housing.”

Las Vegas Holds on to Top Spot in Home Price Growth

Las Vegas, Nevada had the highest pace of home price growth with a year-over-year reading of 13.50 percent; San Francisco, California posted a year-over-year home price growth rate of 9.90 percent. Seattle, Washington held third place in year-over-year home price growth with a reading of 8.40 percent.

Las Vegas home prices, while leading the 20-City Home Price Index, remained 20 percent lower than their peak. Nine cities saw home prices decline in September as compared to August; Seattle, Washington posted a negative home price growth reading of -1.30 percent from August to September.

The National Association of Home Builders reported the third consecutive quarterly decline in the number of Americans expecting to buy homes within the next twelve months. As demand for homes declines, home prices are expected to fall as inventories of available homes rise.

These conditions will soften the impact of strong buyer competition and skyrocketing home prices common in recent years, but home prices remain unaffordable in many areas.

Home Buyers Deal with High Home Prices

Home buyers are finding ways to adjust their home searches to get around affordability issues. A recent survey by the National Association of Home Builders indicated 61 percent of home buyers would continue looking for a home they could afford.

40 percent of buyers said they would expand their search areas and 23 percent of responding home buyers said they would look for homes older or smaller than they originally planned to buy.

As always, contact your trusted real estate professional to discuss the latest activity in your local market.

Case-Shiller: Home Prices Hit 11-Month Low in July

Case-Shiller Home Prices Hit 11-Month Low in JulyHome price growth slowed to its lowest pace in nearly a year according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. National home price growth averaged 6.00 percent year-over-year as compared to 6.20 percent growth in June.

The 20-city home price index rose 0.10 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.90 percent year-over-year. Slowing home price growth was attributed to buyer fatigue and rising inventories of available homes.

Las Vegas Home Price Growth Tops 20-City Home Price Index

Las Vegas, Nevada topped the 20-City Home Price index with a year-over-year home price growth rate of 13.70 percent. Las Vegas home prices crashed during the recession but continued to recover as the economy improved.Seattle, Washington home prices rose 12.70 percent year-over-year in July; San Francisco, California held third place in the 20-city Home Price Index with year-over-year home price growth of 10.80 percent. Five cities posted higher home price growth rates than in June.

Freddie Mac Predicts Further Slowing In Home Price Growth For 2018 And 2019

Prior to the release of July’s Case-Shiller data, Freddie Mac analysts said that home buyer budget limitations coupled with more homes for sale caused home price growth to slow. Freddie Mac projected home price growth of 5.50 percent for 2018 and 4.50 percent growth in 2019.

FHFA, the agency that oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, released its home price index for July and reported lower home price growth in July. After posting steady year-over-year growth rates of 6.80 percent for April, May and June, July home price growth dipped to 6.40 percent. Data in home price data reported by FHFA includes homes connected with mortgages held or guaranteed by Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac.

While slower growth in home prices are good news for potential home buyers, rising mortgage rates, strict mortgage credit requirements and competition with cash buyers continue to create headwinds for home buyers who depend on mortgage financing to fund their home purchases.

If you are in the market for a new property or interested in refinancing your current property, be sure to contact your trusted mortgage professional who can assist you with custom financing options to meet your specific needs.

 

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 5th, 2018

Whats Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – March 5th 2018Last week’s economic releases included readings on new home sales, pending home sales and Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. Construction spending and consumer sentiment reports were also released, along with weekly readings on average mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

New Home Sales Drop in January

New home sales were reported at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 593,000 sales in January according to the Commerce Department. Analysts expected a rate of 693,000 sales based on December’s upwardly revised rate of 643,000 sales of new homes. January’s reading was 7.80 percent lower than for December; January’s reading was one percent lower than for January of 2017.

The average price of a new home was $323,000, which was 2.40 percent higher than for January 2017. The current supply of new homes for sale is 15 percent higher year-over-year, which is expected to ease low inventories of available homes.

Meanwhile, pending home sales were 4.70 percent lower in January than for December, which was unchanged as compared to November. Analysts said that sales activity, which is typically slow in January, was not likely a concern overall.

Case-Shiller Reports Higher Home Prices in December

Home prices were 6.30 percent higher year-over -year in December according to Case-Shiller’s 20-city home price index and were 0.60 percent higher month-to-month. The top three cities leading year-over-year home price growth were Seattle, Washington at 12.70 percent, Las Vegas, Nevada with 11.10 percent growth and San Francisco, California with 9.20 percent growth in home prices.  

None of the 20 cities in the index saw home prices fall in 2017 even after adjustments for inflation.

Construction spending was unchanged in January as compared to analyst estimates of 0.40 percent growth in spending. Builders cited concerns over higher materials prices and shortages of lots and skilled labor. Winter weather was also a factor in lower construction spending.

Mortgage Rates Rise New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average rates for fixed rate mortgages last week; rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages were lower on average. Mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged three basis points higher at 4.43 percent. Rates for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.90 percent and were five basis points higher.

The average rate for a 5/1 mortgage was three basis points lower at 3.62 percent. Discount points averaged 0.50 percent for fixed rate mortgages and 0.40 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages. Mortgage rates rose for the eighth consecutive week, which caused concerns about affordability for first time and moderate-income home buyers. Combined effects of rapidly rising home prices and higher mortgage rates may sideline buyers.

New jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 210,000 first-time claims filed last week. Analysts expected 226,000 new claims based on the prior week’s reading of 220,000 new claims filed. In other news, the University of Michigan reported a lower reading for consumer sentiment in February with an index reading of 99.7 against an expected reading of 100.0 and January’s reading 0f 99.9.

Whats Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes multiple readings from the labor sector along with weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

 

Case-Shiller Home Price Growth Ticks Upward in November Reading

Home prices increased in November, with national home prices up 0.70 percent month-to-month and 6.20 percent higher year-over year. Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index rose by 0.70 percent in the three-month period ending in November; nationally, home prices grew 6.20 percent year-over-year.  Seattle, Washington held first place in home price growth with a year-over-year increase of 12.70 percent. Las Vegas, Nevada home prices followed with year-over-year home price growth of 10.60 percent. San Francisco, California home prices grew by 9.10 percent year-over-year. Slim supplies of homes for sale drove rising home prices and sidelined would-be borrowers as affordability remained out of reach.  Home Prices Get a Pre-Recession Do-Over in Some Cities David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the S&P Dow Jones Indices Committee, said that Los Angeles and San Diego California along with Las Vegas, Nevada and Miami Florida are repeating fast-paced price gains that they had prior to the recession.  Mortgage Rates, Building Costs Impact Supply of Homes and Affordability Combined effects of high mortgage rates and rapidly rising home prices could dampen buyer enthusiasm over time, but the time-worn proclamation that what goes up must come down has not applied to home prices in high demand metro areas. Home buyers may rush to close their home loans before rates rise, but more buyers may delay buying a home due to few options, higher home prices and rising rates.  Lower taxes and rising wages may encourage renters to buy homes, but home prices continued to outstrip income for many potential buyers.  Building more homes is the only relief in sight for low inventories of homes for sale, but builders face rising materials costs, shortages of lots suitable for building and insufficient workers. Other factors impacting home building and buying homes include poor weather in some areas during December, and further shortages of homes caused by natural disasters in 2017. 2018 may see high-priced local areas develop affordable homeownership programs as current prices continue to rise above interested buyers’ financial resourcesHome prices increased in November, with national home prices up 0.70 percent month-to-month and 6.20 percent higher year-over year. Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index rose by 0.70 percent in the three-month period ending in November; nationally, home prices grew 6.20 percent year-over-year.

Seattle, Washington held first place in home price growth with a year-over-year increase of 12.70 percent. Las Vegas, Nevada home prices followed with year-over-year home price growth of 10.60 percent. San Francisco, California home prices grew by 9.10 percent year-over-year. Slim supplies of homes for sale drove rising home prices and sidelined would-be borrowers as affordability remained out of reach.

Home Prices Get a Pre-Recession Do-Over in Some Cities

David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the S&P Dow Jones Indices Committee, said that Los Angeles and San Diego, California along with Las Vegas, Nevada and Miami, Florida are repeating fast-paced price gains that they had prior to the recession.

Mortgage Rates, Building Costs Impact Supply of Homes and Affordability

Combined effects of high mortgage rates and rapidly rising home prices could dampen buyer enthusiasm over time, but the time-worn proclamation that what goes up must come down has not applied to home prices in high demand metro areas. Home buyers may rush to close their home loans before rates rise, but more buyers may delay buying a home due to few options, higher home prices and rising rates.

Lower taxes and rising wages may encourage renters to buy homes, but home prices continued to outstrip income for many potential buyers.

Building more homes is the only relief in sight for low inventories of homes for sale, but builders face rising materials costs, shortages of lots suitable for building and insufficient workers. Other factors impacting home building and buying homes include poor weather in some areas during December, and further shortages of homes caused by natural disasters in 2017.

2018 may see high-priced local areas develop affordable homeownership programs as current prices continue to rise above interested buyers’ financial resources. 

S&P Case-Shiller: Home Prices Gain in August

Home prices gained in August per the 20-City S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index. Analysts said that home values continue to expand in spite of challenges including low inventories of available homes and strict mortgage qualification requirements.

National Home Price Index Near 2006 Peak

According to the national Case-Shiller Home Price Index, August home prices are 0.10 percent below their 2006 peak and all metro areas in the 20-City Home Price Index posted gains. Top gains in the 20-City Home Price Index were posted by Portland, Oregon with a year-over-year gain of 11.70 percent, Seattle, Washington home prices gained 11.40 percent and Denver, Colorado home prices gained 8.80 percent year-over-year.

All metro areas included in the 20-City Index posted year-over-year gains in excess of one percent. New York City had the lowest year-over-year price gain with a year-over-year reading of 1.70 percent in August. Washington, D.C. home prices rose 2.30 percent year-over-year. Home prices in the Cleveland, Ohio metro area increased by 2.90 percent year-over-year.

New Housing Bubble Unlikely

With home price gains close to peak prices seen before the housing bubble burst, concerns may arise over the potential for a new housing bubble to occur in coming months. Analysts say this is unlikely as home buyers are not taking out extreme levels of mortgage debt seen at the onset of the Great Recession. David M. Blitzer, chairman of the S&P Index Committee, said “There is no reason to fear another massive collapse is around the corner. The run-up to the financial crisis was marked with both rising home prices and rapid growth in mortgage debt.”

Possible Fed Rate Hike Won’t Cause Mortgage Rates to Explode

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve is expected to raise the Fed’s target federal funds rate in December. This action will lead to interest rate increases for consumer credit and mortgages, but not at levels that would make mortgage loans suddenly unaffordable. While gradual increases in federal interest rates would cause mortgage rates to rise over time, market conditions and related factors could potentially cause home prices to slow or even dip in some areas. Regional influences including employment and demand for homes are examples of factors contributing to home price growth or decline in specific areas.

S&P Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slows in July

Home prices dipped slightly in July according to the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index. Year-over-year, home price growth dipped to 5.00 percent from June’s reading of 5.10 percent. The Pacific Northwest led the nation in home price appreciation. Portland, Oregon had the highest year-over-year home price growth with a rate of 12.40 percent. Seattle, Washington posted year-over-year home price growth of 11.20 percent. Denver, Colorado was third with a year-over-year home price growth rate of 9.40 percent.

Home prices in San Francisco, California slowed; year-over-year, home prices grew by 6.00 percent in contrast to home price growth topping the 20-city index in recent months. Analysts observed that cooling home prices in San Francisco could represent the end of the area’s housing bubble.

Year-over-year home price growth was lowest in New York, New York with a reading of 1.70 percent. Washington, D.C. posted a year-over-year reading of 2.00 percent; Cleveland, Ohio posted a year-over-year home price growth rate of 2.50 percent.

MonthtoMonth Home Price Growth Provides Surprises

The largest month-to-month gains in home prices were posted by Portland, Oregon at 1.20 percent, Denver, Colorado with a reading of 0.90 percent and Detroit, Michigan with a July reading of 0.80 percent. While year-over-year home price growth readings are less volatile than month-to-month readings, signs of increasing home values in cities with depressed home price growth rates are a positive sign.

On the other hand, San Francisco, California posted a flat reading for month-to-month growth after recently topping year-over-year readings in the 20-City Home Price Index. With skyrocketing prices and limited inventories of available homes, it appears that San Francisco home prices may have reached their upward limit.

David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chair of the S&P Index Committee, said that July’s readings indicate further improvement of the economy and housing markets. This progress could prove difficult to sustain as house prices continue to outpace wages and rising home prices continue to sideline first-time buyers. Slim supplies of homes for sale are creating higher-than-average demand for homes that fuels rapidly rising home prices. This further complicates home purchase options for home buyers who compete with investors and others who are able to meet or exceed asking prices and purchase homes with cash.

Home buyers requiring mortgages have been supported by relatively low mortgage rates, but strict mortgage credit standards continue to provide obstacles for credit-challenged buyers. Financial institutions continue to take a conservative stance on mortgage lending after sustaining severe losses and government ridicule in the wake of the Great Recession.