What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – May 8, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - May 8, 2023Last week’s economic news included reporting on construction spending, the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate, and weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

Construction Spending Increases in March

The Commerce Department reported that month-to-month construction spending rose by 0.30 percent and year-over-year construction spending increased by $1.83 trillion. Residential construction fell by -0.20 percent in March, which was the tenth consecutive monthly decline in residential construction spending. Non-residential construction spending rose by 0.70 percent in March for the ninth gain in the past 10 months.

Fed Raises Key Interest Rate Range

Federal Reserve policymakers raised the Fed’s key interest rate range by a quarter point to 5.00-5.25 percent at its Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on Tuesday and Wednesday. This was the tenth consecutive rate hike as the Fed continues efforts to control inflation.

Analysts noticed a subtle change in the tone of the Fed’s post-meeting statement and suggested that the less aggressive tone used in the post-meeting statement signaled a softer approach to raising the Fed’s benchmark rate. While some Fed policymakers recently suggested the possibility of a recession, Fed Chair Jerome Powell disagreed: “This is not my own most likely case.” Chair Powell also said that he expected economic growth in 2023 but at a slower pace.

Mortgage Rates Mixed, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported mixed movement of mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by four basis points to 6.39 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by five basis points to 5.76  percent.

Initial jobless claims rose to 242,000 claims filed last week as compared to the prior week’s reading of  229,000 first-time claims filed. Continuing jobless claims fell with 1.81 million claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 1.84 million claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings include readings on inflation and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be published.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – April 17, 2022

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - April 17, 2022Last week’s economic reporting included readings on inflation, retail sales, and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

March Inflation Slows as Retail Sales Fall

Inflation slowed to a month-to-month pace of 0.10 percent in March as compared to February’s reading of 0.40 percent growth. Year-over-year inflation rose by 5.00 percent and fell short of analysts’ expected reading of 5.10 percent year-over-year inflation and February’s year-over-year inflation rate of 6.00 percent.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile readings for food and fuel, rose by 0.40 percent in March and matched analysts’ expectations.  The year-over-year reading for core inflation showed 5.00 percent inflation year-over-year in March; analysts expected a year-over-year reading of 5.10 percent and February’s year-over-year reading 6.00 percent. While food and fuel costs are significant for most households, the Fed views the core reading as a more stable indicator of inflationary trends.

Retail sales fell by 1.00 percent in March; analysts expected a reading of –0.50 percent. Retail sales excluding autos fell by –0.80 percent in March. Analysts forecasted a reading of –0.40 percent for March retail sales as compared with February’s reading of 0.00 percent change in retail sales.

Mortgage Rates Fall as Jobless Claims Increase

Freddie Mac reported lower mortgage rates for the fifth consecutive week as the average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages fell by one basis point to 6.27 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed rate mortgages were also one basis point lower and averaged 5.54 percent.

First-time jobless claims rose to 239,000 claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 228,000 claims filed and analysts’ expectations of 235,000 new claims filed. Continuing jobless claims fell to 1.81 million ongoing claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.82 million claims.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for April showed a confidence reading of 63.5 as compared to the expected reading of 62 and the March reading of 62. Readings above 50 indicate that most consumers are confident about current economic conditions.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on U.S. housing markets, sales of previously owned homes, housing starts, and building permits issued. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

 

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – April 3, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - April 3, 2023Last week’s economic reporting included readings on home prices, inflation, and pending home sales. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Report Slower Home Price Growth in January

Home price growth cooled in January according to S&P Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index. Home prices increased by 2.50 percent year-over-year in January but rose at a slower pace than December’s reading of 4.60 percent. The FHFA Home Price Index also showed slower growth in January with year-over-year home price growth of  5.30 percent as compared to December’s home price growth rate of 6.60 percent.

The top three cities for home price growth in the 20-City Home Price Index were Miami, Florida, Tampa, Florida, and Atlanta, Georgia. In contrast, western U.S. cities posted the most declines in home prices. San Francisco, California, Seattle, Washington, and Portland, Oregon posted the steepest declines in home values in January. Home prices in western cities grew rapidly before the pandemic and are falling in post-pandemic markets.

Rapidly rising mortgage rates have narrowed the pool of qualified homebuyers and ongoing shortages of available homes are keeping home prices relatively high. As long as demand for homes exceeds available homes, it’s unlikely that housing markets will crash, but prospective buyers seem wary of recently rising mortgage rates and a slowing economy.

Mortgage Rates Fall as Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 10 basis points to 6.32 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 12 basis points and averaged 5.56 percent. Lower rates were welcome especially when some analysts expect mortgage rates to climb past eight percent in coming months.

198,000 new jobless claims were filed last week and outstripped predictions of 195,000 claims filed and the prior week’s reading of 191,000 first-time claims filed.

The final edition of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey for March fell from an index reading of  67 to 62. Index readings above 50 indicate that most consumers surveyed have a positive view of current economic conditions, Current sentiment remains below an index reading of 101 recorded before the pandemic.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on construction spending, public and private-sector reports on job growth, and the national unemployment rate. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

S&P Case-Shiller: December Home Price Growth Slows

S&P Case-Shiller: December Home Price Growth SlowsHome price growth slowed in December according to the S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index. Year-over-year home prices rose by 4.6 percent in December as compared to November’s reading of 6.8 percent growth. Rising mortgage rates caused home prices to dip as potential buyers delayed home purchases and demand for homes fell.

Craig J. Lazzara, managing director of S&P Dow Jones Indices, said: “The prospect of stable, or higher mortgage rates means that mortgage financing remains a headwind for home prices, while economic weakness, including the possibility of a recession, may also constrain potential buyers. Mr. Lazzara concluded: “Given these prospects for a challenging macroeconomic environment,  home prices may well continue to weaken.”

The S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index fell by a seasonally-adjusted figure of -0.30 percent in December but rose by 5.80 percent year over year.

S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Index Shows Slowing Home Price Growth for December

Nationally home prices fell by -0.30 percent month-to-month and were 5.80 percent higher year-over-year.

Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index is widely used as a benchmark for U.S. home prices; December’s top three cities for rising home prices were Miami, Florida with 15.90  percent year-over-year home price growth; Tampa, Florida followed with 13.9 percent home price growth and Atlanta, Georgia reported 10.4 percent year-over-year home price growth in December.  The 20-City Index reported 4.60 percent year-over-year home price growth as compared to November’s reading of 6.80 percent year-over-year home price growth.

Home prices fell the most in formerly hot markets; in San Francisco, California home prices dropped by -4.20 percent year-over-year and home prices fell by -1.80 percent in Seattle, Washington. Portland, Oregon had the lowest pace of home price growth with a year-over-year reading of 1.10 percent.

In related news, the Federal Housing Finance Agency reported home price growth data for homes owned or financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Home prices rose 8.40 percent year-over-year between the fourth quarters of 2021 and 2022.

Analysts said that lower home prices were caused by rising mortgage rates and lower demand for homes caused by buyers’ concerns about a possible recession. Limited supplies of available homes helped reduce potential losses caused by less buyer demand for homes. High mortgage rates, competition with cash buyers, relatively high home prices, and slim supplies of available homes continue to present challenges to first-time and moderate-income home buyers.

 

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 21, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - February 21, 2023Last week’s economic news included readings on housing markets, inflation, retail sales, and data on housing starts and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

NAHB: Homebuilder sentiment improves in February

The National Association of Home Builders reported higher builder confidence in current U.S. housing market conditions with an index reading of 42 for February; Analysts expected a reading of 37 and January’s reading was 35. NAHB index readings over 50 indicate that most home builders have a positive view of housing market conditions.

Factors influencing positive builder sentiment included lower mortgage rates and expectations of less severe winter weather conditions as spring approaches. February’s reading was the second consecutive month for improved builder sentiment since September 2022; and was the first time builder sentiment improved at its current pace since June 2013. The NAHB said in its statement that “the housing market may be turning a corner.”

In related news, The Commerce Department reported that 1.34 million building permits were issued in January, which fell short of the expected reading of 1.35 million building permits issued and matched December’s reading. Year-over-year housing starts were reported at  1.31 million starts in January; analysts expected a reading of 1.35 million housing starts and December’s reading showed 1.37 million housing starts.

January retail sales rose by 3 percent and exceeded expectations of a 1.9 percent increase in retail sales and surpassed December’s negative reading of  -1.1 percent. Retail sales excluding the automotive sector rose by 2.3 percent in January and exceeded expectations of a 0.9 percent increase and December’s negative reading of  -0.9 percent.

Mortgage rates rise as jobless claims fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by two basis points to 6.32 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 15 basis points to 5.51 percent.

First-time jobless claims fell to 194,000 initial claims filed last week as compared to the expected reading of 200,000 claims filed and the prior week’s reading of 195,000 first-time claims filed. 1.70 million continuing jobless claims were reported last week as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.69 million ongoing claims filed.

What’s ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on sales of new and previously-owned homes, minutes of the February 1 meeting of the Federal reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee, and monthly data on inflation and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Home Prices Fall In November

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Home Prices Fall In NovemberU.S. home prices continued to fall in November according to S&P Case-Shiller’s month-to-month national and 20-city home price indices, but home price growth rates remained in positive territory year-over-year. The national home price index posted a  7.70 percent year-over-year home price growth rate as of November 2022.

20-city home price index posts 5th consecutive month-to-month decrease in November

The S&P Case-Shiller 20-city home price index for November reported that the top three cities for home price growth were Miami, Florida with a year-over-year home price growth rate of 18.4 percent; Tampa, Florida followed with a  year-over-year home price growth rate of 16.9 percent. Atlanta Georgia reported a  12.7 percent growth rate for year-over-year home prices.

Home prices tracked in the 20-city home price index rose at a 6.8 percent year-over-year- pace in November as compared to year-over-year home price growth of 8.6 percent posted in October 2022. 19 of 20 cities included in the S&P Case-Shiller  20-city home price index reported lower home prices in November; only Detroit Michigan reported a gain in month-to-month home price growth.

FHFA: prices drop for homes owned or financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

In related news, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees government-sponsored mortgage enterprises  Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported that home prices for homes financed or owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac dropped by 0.10 percent month-to-month and rose by 8.2 percent year-over-year.

Nataliya Polkovnichenko, Ph.D. and Supervisory Economist in the FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics, said:  “ U.S. house prices were largely unchanged in the last four months and remained near the peak levels reached over the summer of 2022. While higher mortgage rates have suppressed demand for homes, low inventories of houses for sale have helped maintain relatively flat house prices.”

Changes in seasonally adjusted home price changes ranged across the nine Census Divisions from -1.1 percent in the Pacific Division to +0.5 percent in the West North Central Division.  Year-over-year home price gains ranged from  +2.4 percent in the Pacific Division to +12.0 percent in the South Atlantic Division.”

Data included in the FHFA House Price Index are gathered from reports on single-family home prices ranging from the 1970s to the present and include single-family home transactions in all 50 states and more than 400 U.S. cities.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – January 30, 2023

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - January 30, 2023Last week’s economic reporting included readings on new and pending home sales, inflation, and consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

New home sales increase in December

The Commerce Department reported new home sales rose to a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 616,000 sales in December as compared to the expected pace of 615,000  new homes sales and November’s revised reading of 602,000 annual sales. December was the third consecutive month that the pace of new home sales rose, but new home sales remained well below the 1.04 million sales peak reported in August 2020.

Pending home sales rose by 2.5 percent in December, which outpaced expectations of a one percent decrease in pending sales and November’s seasonally-adjusted annual decrease of  -2.6 percent in pending home sales. New home sales are 26.6 percent lower than they were one year ago.

Month-to-month inflation slows in December

The Commerce Department reported that month-to-month inflation rose by 0.1 percent in  December, which matched November’s month-to-month reading. Core inflation rose by 0.1 percent in December to 0.3 percent and matched analyst expectations. Core inflation readings exclude volatile food and fuel sectors that comprise major expenses for many U.S. households.

Year-over-year inflation rose by 5.0 percent in December as compared to November’s pace of 5.5 percent. Core inflation rose  4.4 percent in December, which matched analyst expectations, but fell short of November’s year-over-year reading of 4.7 percent for core inflation.

Mortgage rates, initial jobless claims fall

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by two basis points to 6.13 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 11 basis points to 5.17 percent.

First-time jobless claims fell to 186,000 filings as compared to the expected reading of 205,000 initial jobless claims and the previous week’s reading of 192,000 new jobless claims filed. Continuing jobless claims rose to 1.68 million ongoing claims as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.66 million continuing jobless claims filed.

Consumer sentiment strengthens in January

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index rose to an index reading of 64.9 in January, which surpassed the expected reading of 64.6 and December’s final index reading of 64.6. Readings over 50 indicate that a majority of consumers surveyed have a positive outlook on the economy. Falling gasoline prices contributed to an improved consumer outlook, but grocery prices remained high.

What’s ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on U.S. home prices, The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s scheduled press conference. Labor-sector reports on job growth and the national unemployment rate will also be released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – December 12, 2022

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - December 12, 2022Last week’s scheduled economic reports included preliminary monthly readings on inflation and consumer sentiment along with weekly reporting on mortgage rates and jobless claims.

University of Michigan Reports Slower Inflationary Growth

The University of Michigan predicted lower inflationary growth as December’s year-over-year reading for inflation fell to 4.6 percent from November’s year-over-year reading of 4.9 percent. This was the lowest inflation reading since September 2021. Analysts credited lower gasoline prices for slowing rapid inflation rates seen in recent months.

Falling gas prices also contributed to higher consumer sentiment levels reported in December’s edition of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. Consumer sentiment rose to an index reading of 59.1 in December as compared to November’s reading of 56.8 and analysts’ expected reading of 56.5.

Component readings for current consumer sentiment data included consumer sentiment regarding current economic conditions and consumer views about economic conditions within the next six months. December’s index reading for consumer views of current economic conditions rose to 60.2  from November’s index reading of 58.8. The index reading for consumer views of economic conditions within the next six months rose to 58.4 from November’s reading of 55.6.

Mortgage Rates Fall, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported lower average mortgage rates last week as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by 16 basis points to 6.33 percent. The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by nine basis points to 5.67 percent.

First-time jobless claims rose to 230,000 claims from the previous week’s reading of 225,000 initial claims filed. Ongoing jobless claims also increased last week with 1.67 million continuing claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.61 million ongoing jobless claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic events include reports on inflation, the post-meeting statement of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference after the FOMC statement.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – November 14, 2022

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - November 14, 2022Last week’s scheduled economic news included readings on monthly and year-over-year inflation and the University of Michigan’s preliminary reading on consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Consumer Price Index: Inflation Shows Signs of Slowing

Government readings on October inflation showed signs of stabilizing and even slowing. The Consumer Price Index for October showed month-to-month inflationary growth of 0.40 percent as compared to the expected reading of 0.60 percent and September’s reading of 0.40 percent growth. Year-over-year inflation rose by 7.70 percent as compared to the expected reading of 7.90 percent and September’s reading of 8.20 percent.

Month-to-month core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel sectors, rose 0.30 percent in October as compared to expectations of 0.50 percent growth and September’s reading of 0.60 percent growth. Year-over-year core inflation rose 6.30  percent; analysts expected year-over-year core inflationary growth of 6.50 percent. September’s year-over-year reading for core inflation was 6.60 percent. The Federal Reserve considers year-over-year inflation of two percent as normal.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher mortgage rates last week as rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 7.08 percent and 13 basis points higher than for the previous week. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose nine basis points and averaged 6.38 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 6.06 percent and 11 basis points higher than for the previous week. Discount points averaged 0.90 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 1.00  percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.20 percent

Initial jobless claims rose last week with 225,000 new claims filed as compared to 220,000 new claims expected and  218,000 first-time jobless claims filed. in the previous week. 1.49 million continuing jobless claims were reported, which matched the previous week’s reading.

The University of Michigan released its preliminary consumer sentiment survey for November with an index reading of 54.7. Analysts expected a reading of 59.5 for November; October’s reading was 59.9. Index readings over 50 indicate that most survey participants view current economic conditions as positive.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes readings on housing markets, sales of previously-owned homes, government reports on housing starts, and building permits issued. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – October 31, 2022

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - October 31, 2022

Last week’s economic news included readings on home prices from S&P Case-Shiller home price indices along with sales of new homes and federal government data on inflation. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Home Price Growth Slows in August

U.S home prices fell by 9.8 percent year-over-year in August according to S&P Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index. National home prices fell by -5.3 percent in July. The 20-City Home Price Index rose  13.1 percent year-over-year but reflected readings from markets that were stronger in 2021. Miami. Florida, Tampa, Florida, and Charlotte, North Carolina held the top three spots for home price gains.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported that home prices for homes owned or financed by the two government-sponsored mortgage organizations fell by -7.6 percent in August as compared to July’s reading of -7.3 percent.

The Commerce Department reported that new home sales fell by -10.9 percent to a seasonally-adjusted annual pace of 603,000 sales from August’s revised reading of 677,000 sales. High home prices and rising mortgage rates sidelined prospective buyers concerned about affordability and mortgage qualification requirements. Homebuilders have repeatedly cited rising materials costs and rising mortgage rates as reasons for scaling back new home construction. The good news is that September’s reading surpassed analysts’ expected reading of 593,000 new home sales. Sales of previously owned homes fell to 4.71 million sales on a seasonally-adjusted annual basis as compared to the expected reading of 4.70 million sales and 4.78 million sales of previously-owned homes in August.

Mortgage Rates Top 7 Percent as New Jobless Claims Fall

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 14 basis points to 7.08 percent. Rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.36 percent and were 13 basis points higher. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 5.96 percent and rose 25 basis points. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 1.40 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent.

New jobless claims fell to 214,000 initial claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 226,000 first-time claims filed and the expected reading of 230,000 first-time claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic news includes readings on construction spending, sales of previously-owned homes, and a statement from the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is also scheduled to give a post-meeting press conference.